Citigroup: Restrictions on stablecoin rewards may hinder USDC expansion, but do not change Circle's fundamentals

Citibank stated that the restrictions on the stablecoin reward mechanism in the U.S. CLARITY Act draft may pose temporary resistance to Circle (CRCL), but will not shake its long-term investment logic.

Analysts pointed out that this policy is more likely to affect the pace of scale expansion rather than pose a fundamental threat. The bill aims to limit stablecoin earnings similar to deposit interest, but allows incentive mechanisms related to transactions or payments. Since Circle itself does not directly pay earnings to USDC holders but distributes reserve earnings to partners like Coinbase, its core revenue model will not be directly impacted. Citibank believes that the reduction in rewards may weaken users' short-term motivation to hold USDC, thereby affecting circulation scale and secondary market liquidity, but the key indicators for stablecoin adoption still lie in transaction and payment volumes, rather than circulation volume itself. Previously, due to policy uncertainty, Circle's stock price once fell by about 20%. However, institutions including Bernstein believe that the market may have misinterpreted the policy impact, with regulatory focus on limiting platforms that distribute earnings to users (such as Coinbase), rather than Circle's reserve earnings model.