Gold Revisits $4800, Where Is the Top This Year?

Original Title: "Gold Returns to $4800, Where Is the Top This Year?"

Original Author: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily

After experiencing a sudden strike lasting nearly 6 weeks due to the US-Iran conflict, with the news of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, gold finally returned to above $4800 after nearly 1 month.

From the gold token XAUm mentioned as early as October 2024, to the precise prediction of the gold spot price rising from over $3500 in September last year to above $3900, to the mention of the gold token XAUT when gold rose to around $4500 in January this year, I myself have also begun a dollar-cost averaging journey while following gold.

On the macro level, against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical conflicts, central banks around the world continue to increase their gold holdings, with the Chinese central bank making large purchases for 17 consecutive months; major investment institutions and banks are also full of confidence in the rising gold price.

In view of this, this article from Odaily Planet Daily will explore a question from the recent industry dynamics, political and economic situation changes, etc.: What is the upper limit of gold for this year?

Gold Price Trend in the Past Six Months

Gold Price Prediction in the Market: Price may be below $4200 before June, and the highest price during the year may exceed $6000

After the emergence of prediction markets, benefiting from factors such as betting with real assets and "collective wisdom," it has become an important indicator of predicting asset prices. Currently, the gold price range for the year on Polymarket is around $3800-$6000.

The current betting amount on the mid-year gold price prediction on Polymarket exceeds $3.5 million, with:

The highest probability is below $4200, at 40%;

The next highest probability is above $5500, at 28%;

Following that is above $5700 (currently reported probability 17%) and below $3800 (currently reported probability 13%).

Polymarket's year-end gold price prediction currently has only around $200,000 in betting volume, with:

The highest probability above $6,000 at 46%;

The next highest probability above $7,000 at 25%;

The probability above $8,000 at 16%.

In other words, although the trading volume is relatively small, users of the prediction market have priced the year-end price slightly below $6,000 with a difference of around 20%.

It is worth noting that Polymarket's rules for gold price-related events are based on the official settlement price of the CME Gold (GC) futures contract active month, excluding intraday trades, high price, low price, bid, ask, mid-price, or indicative prices.

Macro Bidding: Central Banks Continue to Increase Holdings, Turkish Central Bank Swaps Gold for Money

As the world's largest asset class by market value, the primary buyer of gold is naturally the central banks with the right to coin money.

In early April, the World Gold Council released its February Central Bank Gold Buying Monthly Report. It pointed out that central banks globally net purchased 19 tons of gold in February 2026, although it was still below the monthly average of 26 tons reported in 2025, showing a slight increase from the net purchase of 5 tons in January 2026.

Furthermore, the report indicated that some central banks maintained a record of continuous net gold purchases, accumulating 44 tons of gold from November 2024 to February 2026, with the Czech Republic reporting the 36th consecutive month of net buying. China increased its gold holdings for the 16th consecutive month (data from February).

At the end of March, Goldman Sachs' research report stated that supported by ongoing gold purchases by central banks worldwide and expectations of two more Fed rate cuts this year, the mid-term outlook for gold remains strong, with prices expected to rise to $5,400/oz by the end of the year. UBS, at the end of March, projected a target price of $5,900/oz for gold in early 2027.

On April 7, the People's Bank of China announced that China's gold reserves at the end of March reached 74.38 million ounces (about 2,313.48 tons), an increase of 160,000 ounces (about 4.98 tons) from the end of February, which was 74.22 million ounces (about 2,308.5 tons), marking the 17th consecutive month of increasing gold holdings.

On the other hand, traditional gold reserve countries have mostly maintained their positions, such as the United States (about 8100 tons), Germany (about 3300 tons), Italy (about 2400 tons), France (about 2400 tons).

As for the pressure on the Middle East's fiat currency system due to the US-Iran conflict, many people are only seeing the tip of the iceberg. In fact, most of this gold has not entered the market but is part of gold-currency swap agreements. In simple terms, the Central Bank of Turkey has used its gold reserves as collateral to obtain US dollar foreign exchange, thus stabilizing the exchange rate of its local currency, the lira.

Structurally, the gold reserves of central banks in emerging markets still represent just over 10% of total reserves, with China only in the single digits. This implies that the global central banks' capacity for further gold purchases is far from saturated, and the strategic need for "de-dollarization" will provide rigid buying support for gold for several years.

Crypto Buying Support: Stablecoin Giant Tether's Gold Reserves Among the World's Top 30

In February, Wall Street investment bank Jefferies released a report stating that stablecoin issuer Tether continues to increase its gold holdings. As of January 31, its gold reserves had grown to about 148 tons, valued at approximately $23 billion at current prices, surpassing the reserves of many sovereign nations and ranking among the world's top 30 gold holders.

The report indicates that Tether increased its gold holdings by about 26 tons in the fourth quarter of 2025 and continued to add about 6 tons in January of this year, making its quarterly gold purchases second only to a few central banks like Poland and Brazil. Its current gold reserves exceed those of countries such as Australia, the UAE, Qatar, South Korea, and Greece.

The institution noted that the aforementioned gold is mainly used to support the US dollar stablecoin USDT and the gold-backed token XAUT (currently with a market capitalization of over $3.3 billion). As Tether is a private company, its disclosed data may be understated, and the actual gold holdings may be higher than the published figures. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino previously stated that the company plans to allocate about 10%-15% of its portfolio to physical gold.

Retail Buying Support: Holding at High Levels Defines Stability Amidst Correction

In 2026, retail participation in gold investment has significantly increased, with Asian funds notably becoming a new driving force in the gold market.

In January, Asian Gold ETF saw a record monthly inflow of up to $10 billion.

Additionally, Chinese investors purchased a total of 432 tons of gold bars and coins in 2025, setting a new historical high. Scenes of long queues outside domestic gold shops for buying allocated gold and frequent sell-outs of allocated gold on bank apps reflect the strong belief of retail investors in the value preservation function of gold.

However, the flip side of retail buying pressure has led to increased volatility in the gold price. In January, news of Kevin Wash's nomination as Federal Reserve Chair caused a single-day price plunge of over 9%, marking the largest one-day drop in nearly 40 years. In March, the gold price briefly plunged below $4200 per ounce, trapping many retail investors at high levels. When combined with the significant increase in positions by the Chinese central bank, it created a sharp contrast between "retail panic selling and sovereign wealth funds buying the dip."

Therefore, a large number of retail buyers trapped at high levels will prevent significant gold selling throughout the year.

Institutional View: Gold Still Heading to New Highs, Price Expected Around $5200 by End of June

On the institutional front, UBS, which has long been attentive to the precious metals market, has been vocal with its views this year.

On January 21, UBS Precious Metals Strategist Joni Teves stated that the core driver of this round of gold price increases is the demand for diversified allocation. Institutional investors, retail investors, and various central banks have all increased their gold holdings to address macro uncertainty.

It is expected that there will still be upward momentum in the gold price in the first half of the year. If market concerns about the Fed's independence continue to rise, the gold price is expected to break through the $5000 per ounce level in the first half of the year. Silver, benefiting from the rising gold price and the narrowing supply-demand gap, may challenge $100 per ounce this year.

Subsequently, both gold and silver surged, with the former briefly hitting near $5600 per ounce and the latter briefly reaching $120 per ounce.

On February 24, UBS Group announced that they expect the future gold price to reach $6200 per ounce in the coming months as the key factors that drove its strong upward trend over the past year are still present.

Then, on February 28, the US-Iran conflict officially erupted as Israel and the US jointly attacked Iran, igniting a regional war.

On March 5, UBS analysts stated in a report that data going back to 1900 shows that for the financial markets, economic risk has been proven to be more significant than geopolitical risk. They stated that in most cases, investors who can "see through" geopolitical noise tend to perform the best.

At the end of March, UBS expected the early 2027 gold target price to be $5900 per ounce.

On April 2, UBS strategist Joni Teves projected that despite recent gold price volatility, the gold price would reach a new high this year and viewed the recent pullback as a buying opportunity. UBS expected the 2026 average gold price to be $5000 per ounce, with 2027 and 2028 at $4800 and $4250 per ounce, respectively.

On April 7, UBS lowered its expected gold price at the end of June to $5200 per ounce due to increased market volatility and cooling investor demand.

Furthermore, in early February, JPMorgan Chase publicly maintained a bullish view on gold, with a year-end gold target of $6300, implying a 34% increase.

Understanding the Essence of Gold: A Hedge Asset at the Core of De-dollarization

Lastly, let's briefly discuss the essence of gold investment.

In 1971, the United States unilaterally dismantled the Bretton Woods system it had established. Subsequently, the price of gold soared from $35 per ounce to nearly $5000 per ounce today, a cumulative increase of over 94 times in 55 years. Viewing it in investment cycles of 4-5 years, it has crossed through at least 10 cycles of bull and bear markets.

After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the economic process of "de-dollarization" suddenly accelerated, leading global central banks to embark on a new round of gold reserve competition, gradually shaping the gold "supermarket" of the past three years.

Fast forward to 2026, as the United States, instigated by Israel's Netanyahu, mobilized forces in the Middle East (Note: Rumors suggest a U.S.-Israel coalition to strike Iran, with previous Netanyahu lobbying personally), despite the impact of AI, technology, reshoring of domestic industries, and policies, the U.S. political and economic situation did not instantly collapse, but the dollar's monetary credit system began to show signs of decay.

In January of this year, the renowned investment bank Morgan Stanley stated that the U.S. dollar's role in the global system was gradually being weakened, but due to the limited availability of credible alternative currencies, in an increasingly multipolar world, gold has become the biggest challenger to the dollar.

According to Morgan Stanley's research, the U.S. dollar's international influence has declined across various indicators, including its decreasing share in central bank foreign exchange reserves and reduced usage in corporate and emerging market sovereign issuances.

Nevertheless, the US dollar still holds the largest share of global reserves, indicating that a significant challenger has not yet emerged. However, when considering gold, the situation changes. Gold's share of assets held by central banks around the world has increased from around 14% to 25%–28%, and this upward trend shows "no signs of slowing down." Risk premiums and hedging behavior will continue to put pressure on the US dollar, while supporting gold demand.

Despite the questioning of gold's "safe-haven asset attributes" during the Dubai turmoil caused by the US-Iran conflict due to its lack of portability, in the current international landscape, it remains the only internationally recognized hard currency apart from the US dollar.

Regarding Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its acceptance of payment in cryptocurrencies such as the Renminbi and BTC, it has to some extent exposed the reality of the declining credibility of the US dollar in the global economic system.

Therefore, despite Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone warning in his April Metals Market Outlook report that gold and silver may have peaked, and the "once-in-a-generation" high point may have passed. But considering Trump's current politically ambivalent and opportunistic stance, gold is still at a relatively low point for the year.

Considering the above multi-dimensional analysis, the intrayear trend of gold in 2026 can be summarized as a three-stage structure of "first quarter peak, second quarter mild correction, third and fourth quarter bottoming and rebound," with the core logic still being upward, but the volatility will be significantly higher than in previous years.

At the current price level of $4800 per troy ounce, gold may be in a corrective rebound phase, with $4900 being a key resistance zone in the near term. Progress in US-Iran ceasefire talks, US CPI data, and signals from the Federal Reserve will be the most critical price catalysts in the short term. If the ceasefire agreement continues and oil prices continue to fall, further rate cut expectations, the price of gold is expected to challenge the $5200 level by the end of the second quarter.

In the second half of the year, as US inflation pressures ease with falling oil prices, the Federal Reserve's rate cut window reopens, a weaker US dollar will provide greater upside potential for gold. In addition, the unpredictable situation of midterm elections will also provide some political momentum for the rise of gold, BTC, and other assets.

In terms of price ceilings, considering institutional forecasts and market trends, the reasonable upper limit price range prediction for gold in 2026 is $5400–$6000 per troy ounce, with the optimistic scenario reaching $6200–$6400 per troy ounce.

In summary, just as the State of Qin was at the end of its strength back then, "When Qin loses its deer, the warlords will chase after it." At this moment, in the world of assets, if we talk about secure protection and value preservation and appreciation, who can replace gold?

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