The Harsh Reality Behind the $26 Billion Crypto Liquidation: Liquidity Is Killing the Market

By: blockbeats|2026/02/06 13:00:01
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Original Article Title: There's Not Enough Money In The World
Original Article Author: @plur_daddy, Financial Analyst
Original Article Translation: Dangdang, Odaily Planet Daily

Editor's Note: Gold and silver plummeted, US stocks tumbled across the board, and the cryptocurrency market was hit hard with a 24-hour trading volume of over $26 billion. Bitcoin once experienced a flash crash to the $60,000 level, plunging nearly 20% in a single day. From its peak of $126,000 in October last year, the BTC price has been halved. What's even more alarming is that the market has seen almost no meaningful resistance.

Everyone is frantically searching for reasons: US tech stocks dragging down crypto, Trump's nomination of Warsh triggering hawkish expectations, a strong dollar, poor job data... These explanations all sound reasonable. However, in the view of the author of this article, they are mostly superficial and not the core issue. The real underlying reason is that there is simply not enough money in the world. The AI massive capital expenditure cycle itself is shifting from "injecting liquidity" to "extracting liquidity," leading to a substantial shortage of global financial capital.

The following content is from the original author and will systematically break down how this mechanism operates.

We are undergoing a paradigm shift in the market, driven by a financial capital shortage caused by the AI capital expenditure cycle. This has a profound impact on asset prices because capital has been excessively abundant for a long time. The Web 2.0 and SaaS paradigms that drove the market prosperity of the 2010s were essentially extremely light capital business models, allowing a large amount of surplus capital to flow into various speculative assets.

Yesterday, while discussing the market structure, I suddenly had an "epiphany moment." I believe this is the most differentiated article I have written in a long time. Below, I will break down layer by layer how everything functions.

There is actually a highly similar mechanism between AI capital expenditure and government fiscal stimulus, which helps us understand its underlying logic.

In fiscal stimulus, the government issues bonds, and the private sector then absorbs duration risk; the government then receives cash and injects it back into the economy. This cash circulates in the real economy, creating a multiplier effect. Its net impact on financial asset prices is positive precisely because of the existence of this multiplier effect.

When it comes to AI capital expenditure, mega-cap tech companies either issue bonds or sell government bonds (or other assets), with the private sector absorbing the duration risk; these companies then receive the cash and put it to use. This cash similarly circulates in the real economy, generating a multiplier effect. Ultimately, the net impact on financial asset prices remains positive.

As long as this funding comes from the “dry powder” in the economic system (idle capital not yet deployed), this process can run smoothly. It works well, almost able to “lift all boats.” In recent years, this has been the dominant paradigm—AI capital expenditure acting as an incremental stimulus, injecting a stimulant into the economy and markets.

The issue is: once the dry powder is depleted, any dollar inflows into AI capital expenditure must be diverted from elsewhere. This triggers a convexity scramble for capital. When capital becomes scarce, markets are forced to reevaluate: where is capital best deployed? Meanwhile, the cost of capital (i.e., interest rates set by the market) rises.

Let me reiterate: when money becomes tight, there is an “elimination game” among assets. The most speculative assets suffer disproportionately—just as they disproportionately benefited when capital was abundant but lacked productive use. In this sense, AI capital expenditure actually plays a role in “reverse QE,” leading to a negative asset allocation rebalancing effect.

Fiscal stimulus typically does not face this issue because the Fed often ends up being the ultimate absorber of duration risk, thereby avoiding “crowding out” effects for other capital purposes.

The term “money” used here can be interchangeable with “liquidity.” However, the word “liquidity” can be confusing as it has different meanings in different contexts.

Let me give you an example: money or liquidity is like water. You need the water level in the bathtub to be high enough for financial assets (those floating rubber ducks) to rise together. To do this, there are several ways:

· You can increase the total amount of water (rate cuts / QE)

· You can unclog the inflow pipes (similar to current operations like RRP (reverse repurchase) / RMP (reserve management purchases))

· Or you can reduce the rate at which water drains from the bathtub.

When discussing liquidity in the economy, the focus is almost always on the money supply. However, in reality, demand for money is equally important. The issue we currently face is: excessive demand, leading to a significant crowding-out effect.

There have been reports in the media that the world's "deepest pockets" — Saudi Arabia and SoftBank — have essentially been squeezed dry. Over the past decade, the world has been on a frenzy of asset gorging, and now it is "full." Let's take a closer look at what this means.

Suppose Sam Altman (Founder of OpenAI) reaches out to them to honor their previous commitments. Unlike in the past when they still had dry powder, now they must sell something first to free up money to give to him. So, hypothetically, what would they sell?

They would review their investment portfolio and select the least confident assets: sell some underperforming bitcoins; sell some SaaS software assets facing disruption risk; redeem funds from underperforming hedge funds. And these hedge funds, to meet redemptions, must sell assets. Asset prices fall, confidence is eroded, margin availability tightens, triggering more passive selling elsewhere. These effects propagate layer by layer and amplify in the financial markets.

What's worse, Trump chose Warsh. This is particularly problematic because he believes the current problem is too much money, when in fact, the opposite is true. As a result, since his selection, the pace of these market changes has significantly accelerated.

I have been trying to understand why memory chip manufacturers like DRAM / HBM / NAND (such as SNDK, MU) outperform other stocks by far. Of course, underlying product prices have indeed surged. But more importantly, these companies are now and in the near future in a state of excess profitability—although it is clear that their profitability is cyclical and will eventually fall back. As the cost of capital rises, the discount rate increases. The result is that assets with longer duration and speculative on future expectations will be hit, while assets with near-term cash flow will benefit relatively.

In such an environment, crypto assets naturally face a "doomsday scenario" as they are the frontline probes of liquidity condition changes. This is also why the market feels like it is "falling endlessly."

Highly speculative retail momentum stocks can hardly hold any gains, and even sectors where fundamentals are improving are struggling.

Due to demand for money exceeding supply, sovereign bonds and credit rates are both rising.

This is not a time to be comfortably extremely long. This is a phase that requires defense, extremely selective positions, and careful risk management. I'm not telling you to go all into cash, and this article is not a trading signal. You should take it as a kind of background framework to help you understand what's going on.

I personally sold my gold and silver at the peak, and currently, most of my position is in cash. I am not eager to buy anything. I believe that if you are patient enough, this year will present extremely rare opportunities.

Finally, thanks to the genius friends who thoroughly discussed these issues with me in the group chat, including @AlexCorrino, @chumbawamba22, @Wild_Randomness.

Original Article Link

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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