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On-chain Data Academy (Part Seven): A Brand New, Ark-involved $BTC Magical Pricing Methodology (II)
Original Article Title: "On-Chain Data Classroom (VII): A Brand New Set, Ark Participated Research on the Magical Pricing Methodology of $BTC (II)"
Original Article Author: Mr. Berg, On-Chain Data Analyst
If you are not familiar with Cointime Price yet, it is recommended to read the first article: "On-Chain Data Classroom (VI): A Brand New Set, Ark Participated Research on BTC's Magical Pricing Methodology (I)"
TLDR
- The Cointime Price series consists of three articles, this being the second article
- This article will introduce the application method of Cointime Price in top avoidance
- This article will introduce a personally designed deviation model
1. Brief Review of Cointime Price
The concept of Cointime Price originates from Cointime Economics, which evaluates BTC's fair price in a "time-weighted" manner.
Compared to simply Long-Term Holders (LTH) and Short-Term Holders (STH), Cointime Price is more elastic, sensitive, and can effectively exclude the influence of ancient lost BTC.
The first article detailed Cointime Price and its buy-the-dip application. If you already understand the concept, let's officially delve into today's topic: top avoidance application
2. Top Avoidance Application Methodology: Cointime Price Deviation Model Design
Cointime Price Deviation is one of the models I designed during my on-chain data research and has been applied in the weekly top avoidance analysis report.
Related Tweet: [Top Avoidance Model Introduction](https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1870763628645032213)
The following text will explain the model's design principles and how to use the model to assess BTC tops. All content in this article is original research, the research process is not easy, so please show your support
1. Quantifying Current Price Deviation from Cointime Price
Why Measure Deviation?
- The Cointime Price highly represents the true holding cost of BTC chips, especially for Long-Term Holders (LTH).
- Since Long-Term Holders have a greater impact on the Cointime Price, when the BTC current price is significantly higher than the Cointime Price, the profit-taking motivation of Long-Term Holders increases, which may trigger distribution behavior.
· Calculation Formula: Deviation Rate = (Current Price - Cointime Price) / Current Price
· Observing Deviation Rate (Distribution Rate)
As shown in the chart, we can obtain the Distribution Rate curve (purple line). We can see that: whenever the Distribution Rate is at a high level, it often corresponds to the BTC top.
So, how do we define a "high level"? Next, we will use statistical methods to address this issue.
2. Cointime Price Deviation Extreme Value Definition
If we observe historical data, we will find that the high points of Deviation are not fixed; in each bull market cycle, the peak value of Deviation slightly decreases. Therefore, it is not rigorous to solely use a fixed numerical value to define a "high level."
To address this, I adopt the concept of statistical "standard deviation":
· Calculate the mean and standard deviation of historical Deviation data.
· Define "Mean + n standard deviations" as the "high level (top signal)," referred to as the Threshold.
· Smooth the Deviation data with a moving average to reduce noise.
· When the moving average value of Deviation> Threshold, trigger a top signal.
· Why Use Standard Deviation?
· The historical trend of Deviation exhibits mean reversion characteristics (as shown in the chart).
· Standard deviation measures volatility, so when BTC price volatility decreases, the Threshold will also dynamically adjust, providing more elasticity.
As shown in the above diagram, after the above processing, we can get such a diagram.
· Supplementary Explanation
- In point 2, "Mean + n Standard Deviations," n is an adjustable parameter: the larger n is, the lower the probability of vertex signal occurrence, and the model is more stringent.
- Point 3's moving average smoothing: mainly filters out short-term market fluctuations to improve signal reliability.
3. Top Escaping Signal Example
As shown in the figure, when the purple line (Distribution Ratio) exceeds the orange line (Threshold), the corresponding BTC price is often at a phase top.
III. Conclusion
This article is the second in the Cointime Price series, continuing the concepts of the previous article, sharing how individuals can design a top escaping model using Cointime Price.
· Summarize Core Points:
- Cointime Price Deviation quantifies the deviation of the current BTC price from the Cointime Price, speculating on the distribution motivation of long-term holders, used to determine the BTC top.
- The "Standard Deviation" method is used to dynamically define top signals to ensure the model is more adaptive.
- The model has been practically applied in weekly reports and can effectively capture BTC high-level signals.
Future Plans:
- The third article in this series will continue to explore the application of Cointime Price in escaping the top, so stay tuned.
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Mixin has launched USTD-margined perpetual contracts, bringing derivative trading into the chat scene.
The privacy-focused crypto wallet Mixin announced today the launch of its U-based perpetual contract (a derivative priced in USDT). Unlike traditional exchanges, Mixin has taken a new approach by "liberating" derivative trading from isolated matching engines and embedding it into the instant messaging environment.
Users can directly open positions within the app with leverage of up to 200x, while sharing positions, discussing strategies, and copy trading within private communities. Trading, social interaction, and asset management are integrated into the same interface.
Based on its non-custodial architecture, Mixin has eliminated friction from the traditional onboarding process, allowing users to participate in perpetual contract trading without identity verification.
The trading process has been streamlined into five steps:
· Choose the trading asset
· Select long or short
· Input position size and leverage
· Confirm order details
· Confirm and open the position
The interface provides real-time visualization of price, position, and profit and loss (PnL), allowing users to complete trades without switching between multiple modules.
Mixin has directly integrated social features into the derivative trading environment. Users can create private trading communities and interact around real-time positions:
· End-to-end encrypted private groups supporting up to 1024 members
· End-to-end encrypted voice communication
· One-click position sharing
· One-click trade copying
On the execution side, Mixin aggregates liquidity from multiple sources and accesses decentralized protocol and external market liquidity through a unified trading interface.
By combining social interaction with trade execution, Mixin enables users to collaborate, share, and execute trading strategies instantly within the same environment.
Mixin has also introduced a referral incentive system based on trading behavior:
· Users can join with an invite code
· Up to 60% of trading fees as referral rewards
· Incentive mechanism designed for long-term, sustainable earnings
This model aims to drive user-driven network expansion and organic growth.
Mixin's derivative transactions are built on top of its existing self-custody wallet infrastructure, with core features including:
· Separation of transaction account and asset storage
· User full control over assets
· Platform does not custody user funds
· Built-in privacy mechanisms to reduce data exposure
The system aims to strike a balance between transaction efficiency, asset security, and privacy protection.
Against the background of perpetual contracts becoming a mainstream trading tool, Mixin is exploring a different development direction by lowering barriers, enhancing social and privacy attributes.
The platform does not only view transactions as execution actions but positions them as a networked activity: transactions have social attributes, strategies can be shared, and relationships between individuals also become part of the financial system.
Mixin's design is based on a user-initiated, user-controlled model. The platform neither custodies assets nor executes transactions on behalf of users.
This model aligns with a statement issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on April 13, 2026, titled "Staff Statement on Whether Partial User Interface Used in Preparing Cryptocurrency Securities Transactions May Require Broker-Dealer Registration."
The statement indicates that, under the premise where transactions are entirely initiated and controlled by users, non-custodial service providers that offer neutral interfaces may not need to register as broker-dealers or exchanges.
Mixin is a decentralized, self-custodial privacy wallet designed to provide secure and efficient digital asset management services.
Its core capabilities include:
· Aggregation: integrating multi-chain assets and routing between different transaction paths to simplify user operations
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· Decentralization: achieving full user control over assets without relying on custodial intermediaries
· Privacy protection: safeguarding assets and data through MPC, CryptoNote, and end-to-end encrypted communication
Mixin has been in operation for over 8 years, supporting over 40 blockchains and more than 10,000 assets, with a global user base exceeding 10 million and an on-chain self-custodied asset scale of over $1 billion.
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