Is a Bitcoin record closer than you think? This one indicator reveals everything

According to analyses prepared by the CryptoQuant platform, Bitcoin is currently on the verge of establishing a completely new upward trend.

The key to understanding what is happening on the charts is the concept of the so-called turning point boundary, which has played a fundamental role in previous market cycles. This refers to the twenty-month simple moving average, which currently stands at exactly $87.16 billion in terms of total valuations or simply a level of $87,165 per coin. It is around this historical line that the most important technical battle is currently taking place. Historical analysis of market cycles clearly shows that whenever the price returned above this key indicator after previously falling below it, the market received a powerful impulse to build new price records.

Signal for Growth

The twenty-month moving average itself is not just a dry statistical value, but serves as the backbone of the world-renowned Bollinger Bands, used by technical analysts to study the volatility and price range of a given asset. The upper and lower limits of this indicator are currently set at $121,640 and $52,694, respectively. The space stretching between the lower band and the moving average is described in financial literature and on-chain reports as a natural accumulation base. It is here that the most experienced market participants quietly gather assets while retail investors succumb to market emotions. The twenty-month average itself represents a symbolic capitulation boundary that Bitcoin lost in December 2025. The current attempt to break this resistance from below resembles situations from previous years when successfully overcoming the resistance level opened the way for dynamic marches towards new price highs. It is worth noting that it has been over a year since Bitcoin set its historical record at $124,709 in October 2025, which means that the ongoing market reset process can be considered officially concluded.

Accumulation by Experienced Players

Although volatility indicators do not directly serve to generate simple buy or sell signals, the analysis of market cycle signals clearly suggests that so-called smart capital decides to realize profits only when the price reaches the upper limit of the Bollinger Band. Currently, this line is slightly below last year's peak of $126,200. However, representatives of CryptoQuant are convinced that the upcoming movement has the potential to break these limits and set significantly higher valuations. Monthly chart of the BTC/USD pair with Bollinger Bands (source: Cointelegraph/TradingView)

An analyst hiding online under the pseudonym GugaOnChain pointed out the stark contrast between the stance of retail investors and the readings coming directly from the blockchain. He noted that while small players fear the current levels around $82,442 and treat them as a potential local ceiling, on-chain indicators clearly show that the market is still in the early warming-up stage. Interestingly, the twenty-month moving average almost perfectly coincides with Bitcoin's opening level for the year at $87,490, further reinforcing this area as a key psychological and technical resistance. Analysis of order books on the largest exchanges confirms the presence of powerful liquidity walls on the sell side in this specific price range.

On-Chain Indicators Confirm Bull Market Dominance

Regardless of the difficult situation in traditional markets and macroeconomic challenges, data coming directly from the network provides strong arguments for maintaining a long-term upward trend. The analytical team at XWIN Research Japan points to readings of three key on-chain metrics that justify cautious optimism regarding price behavior in the coming weeks. Bitcoin reserves held on exchanges have recently decreased by 1.7%, clearly indicating a lack of willingness to sell from large holders. Additionally, the indicator showing the market cycle arrangement, overseen by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, unequivocally classifies the current phase as a bull market. Ki Young Ju himself announced the end of the bear market back in late August, and the latest data confirms an acceleration of upward momentum. The reading of the mentioned indicator has risen from a level of 0.042 recorded at the end of summer to a value of 0.186 currently. However, for the trend to fully take flight, the market will need further, regular inflows of capital into ETF funds and stable demand in the spot market, which will ultimately seal the return to historical highs.

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