Tech Veteran: Anthropic IPO Will Be the Peak of AI Market in US Stocks, Will 'Aggressively Buy Chinese AI' If Conditions Allow

Author: Long Yue, Wall Street Insight

Driven by the AI boom, Anthropic is preparing for an IPO that could reach as high as $100 billion. However, a long-time skeptic of AI, tech veteran Jack Selby, has issued a warning: the Anthropic IPO may mark the peak of the AI market, and a chain reaction of corrections could occur once the lock-up period expires.

Jack Selby, head of venture capital firm Copper Sky and managing partner of the Peter Thiel family office, stated in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Wednesday, "If this most anticipated AI company's IPO comes in significantly below expectations, imagine what will happen after the lock-up period expires. A poorly performing Anthropic IPO will undoubtedly be a core driver of a substantial correction in the AI market."

Anthropic is currently seeking to raise up to $100 billion through its IPO, private placements, and potential over-allotment options. Initial signs indicate strong market demand, with reports suggesting that the offering size may even expand further. However, Selby is not convinced.

Selby publicly stated over a year ago that the frenzy surrounding the AI industry might be the largest bubble in private tech investment to date. He has once again voiced his concerns, systematically questioning Anthropic's investment value from three dimensions: valuation logic, competitive landscape, and capital structure.

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Lock-Up Period Risks: If IPO Fails, Corrections May Trigger a Chain Reaction

Selby's concerns about the Anthropic IPO center on the potential selling pressure once the lock-up period expires.

If this most anticipated AI company's IPO ultimately values far below the original expectations, one can imagine the downward pressure on the stock price once the lock-up period ends and more shares can be sold.

Specifically, Selby pointed to SoftBank Group and Oracle as the "canaries in the coal mine"—i.e., warning signals. He believes Oracle has a greater risk exposure due to its high debt ratio. For investors who must hold AI positions, he recommends shifting to Google under Alphabet.

Revenue Structure Concerns: Over 80% is Non-Recurring Income

In addition to risks related to market sentiment, Selby also raised questions about Anthropic's fundamentals.

He pointed out that over 80% of Anthropic's revenue is non-recurring, making it highly susceptible to technological advancements from competitors. If competitors narrow the gap to within six or nine months, this revenue structure will face severe challenges.

Capital expenditure is also a significant concern.

This is an extremely capital-intensive business. Data, energy, data centers, chips—all are expensive inputs, and interest rates are no longer near zero.

This is a real business, but it is still in its early stages. To think of it as a trillion-dollar company seems quite far-fetched.

Competitive Pressure from China

Selby also pointed to competitive pressure from China, viewing it as another underestimated risk in Anthropic's valuation logic.

He stated that DeepSeek and other Chinese AI models are currently only about six months behind Anthropic, posing a direct threat to the company.

Selby further mentioned that if conditions allow, he would "aggressively buy Chinese AI." He believes that Anthropic cannot claim that all its business must rely on U.S. models, as most AI use cases are closer to basic tool applications, leaving room for Chinese models to substitute.

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