BCRA expects a $4.4 billion offer from companies and provinces to support dollar purchases

Vladimir Werning, Vice President of the Central Bank (BCRA), gave a talk at the IAEF, outlining an overview of the economy and providing some relevant data to anticipate how the dynamics of reserve purchases may evolve for the remainder of the year. For now, the BCRA expects an extra flow of dollars that could allow it to offset the lower seasonal supply of foreign currency from the agricultural sector in the second half of the year.

One of the main points was related to the issuance of debt securities by companies and provinces and the entry of those dollars into the foreign exchange market. According to the presentation, since October 1, $20.2 billion has been issued, of which $15.8 billion has entered the local exchange market.

The difference between these two amounts reaches $4.4 billion and represents a potential additional source of foreign currency supply for the coming months. This figure is particularly relevant as the year-end approaches, when the liquidation from the agricultural sector tends to weaken seasonally. Nevertheless, for the period from September to December, a flow of foreign currency from agriculture to the MULC is projected to reach $12.16 billion, according to the Rosario Stock Exchange.

According to Ámbito, along with other sources such as Politikon Chaco and PPI, six jurisdictions made seven debt placements for more than $4 billion between July 2025 and July 2026.

Córdoba led the issuances, with $725 million in July 2025 and another $800 million at the beginning of 2026. CABA also entered the market — which recently improved its rating — with $600 million; Santa Fe with $800 million; Entre Ríos with $300 million; Chubut with $650 million; and Neuquén with $500 million.

It is worth noting that the data corresponds exclusively to international dollar issuances and does not include placements made in the local market. Thus, the Politikon report also confirms that the stock of provincial public securities recorded a real year-on-year growth of 9.7% at the end of the first quarter of 2026.

And the activity could continue. For the moment, it is expected that San Juan and Santa Cruz will be the next provinces to seek international financing, although the operations are still pending. Santa Cruz announced at the end of July that it would seek to enter the market for $600 million, while San Juan is preparing to debut on Wall Street with a placement for another $600 million.

Companies also played a central role in the return of dollar financing. Only during the **first half of 2026, energy companies issued $5.307 billion in negotiable obligations, with YPF, Pampa Energía, Edenor, Pluspetrol, and Vista among the main issuers.

The activity continued during the second half, with new issuances from companies such as Tecpetrol, Profertil, CGC, MSU Green Energy, and Galicia.

This phenomenon, along with the return of provinces to the debt market, contributed to increasing the availability of foreign currency. According to the data presented by the BCRA, as of August 26, the placements of debt securities by companies and provincial governments accumulated $20.2 billion, of which $15.8 billion had entered the local exchange market.

Another relevant piece of information from Werning's presentation concerns the transfers of dividends abroad. During 2026, there was a strong acceleration of remittances, amounting to nearly $4 billion, bringing the flow back to levels not seen since 2016 and 2017, during Mauricio Macri's presidency.

As financial flows from companies and provinces grow, the Central Bank has accumulated purchases of $14.196 billion so far in 2026.

However, the buying dynamics lost momentum during August. In that month, the Central Bank acquired $768 million, the lowest monthly record of the year, compared to $2.162 billion in July and $2.596 billion in May.

Meanwhile, gross international reserves remain above $50 billion, close to their highest levels since 2019.

Looking ahead to the coming months, part of the attention will be focused on that $4.4 billion gap between the issued securities and the dollars that effectively entered the foreign exchange market. If a portion of those funds is finally liquidated, it could provide an additional source of supply and facilitate the continuation of the BCRA's reserve purchases.

However, not all of that amount will necessarily reach the foreign exchange market. The Central Bank itself estimates that companies and provinces face about $2.3 billion in dollar financial maturities and announced buybacks during the third and fourth quarters, commitments that could absorb part of the funds raised.

Thus, between the seasonal supply from agriculture and the dollars from debt placements, the BCRA seeks to maintain the accumulation of reserves and strengthen its firepower ahead of the election year, while also trying to keep the exchange rate contained.

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