Crypto Influencers' Trading Signals No Better Than Coin Tossing

The trading signals from crypto influencers have provided lower returns than buying Bitcoin on the same days for most accounts. Freekonomist Research examined 17,820 trading predictions shared on Telegram, YouTube, and X between 2017 and 2026. 51.9% of the predictions were accurate. However, only 24 out of 63 accounts had signals that performed better than buying Bitcoin in the simulation of the research. Assuming an investor starting with $1,000 allocated $100 to each trading signal without leverage, this scenario was compared to buying Bitcoin. The median balance of the investor following the signals was $1,180, while the amount for Bitcoin purchases reached $1,272. In the simulation, an investor following 49 accounts exceeded their initial capital. Nevertheless, 23 out of the 39 accounts that had more than half of their predictions correct lagged behind Bitcoin. For instance, Il Capo of Crypto had 62.3% of his predictions correct; the balance of the investor following this account reached $1,632, while the balance of an investor buying Bitcoin on the same days was $2,330. Among the 46 channels examined on Telegram, 14 performed well, while 9 out of 16 channels on YouTube did the same.

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