EBRD Lowers Ukraine's Economic Growth Forecast to 1.5%

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has downgraded its economic growth forecast for Ukraine in 2026 from 2.2% to 1.5%, and for 2027 from 4% to 2.5%. The main reason for this change is the renewed Russian attacks on Black Sea ports. The economic situation in Ukraine has shifted from a slow recovery to stagnation. In the first half of the year, economic growth has nearly halted; however, defense production and government spending have supported activity. Growth has been hindered by damage to energy infrastructure, a shortage of workers, and worsening business expectations. Attacks on ports are limiting the export of goods, which is linked to the deteriorating forecasts for 2026 and 2027. Alternative routes may partially compensate for the loss of maritime logistics, but issues with water levels in the Danube and a lack of rolling stock are exacerbating the situation. The trade deficit is increasing: imports are rising while export opportunities are shrinking. Among the risks are prolonged disruptions in shipping in the Black Sea and a potential shortage of external financing. The blockade of Black Sea exports could impact the global market, as Ukraine and Russia account for about a quarter of the world's wheat exports. The government has warned of a possible accumulation of 10-12 million tons of grain due to delays in maritime exports.

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