Goldman Sachs Raises Optical Module Demand Forecast to 144 Million Units, Supply Chain Tightness May Become a Bottleneck

Goldman Sachs has raised its demand forecast for optical modules of 800G and above for 2027 and 2028 after visiting 15 optical communication companies in China, with increases of 39% and 36%, respectively, to 144 million and 171 million units. It is expected that the price of 1.6T optical modules will remain above $700, with the price reduction for 800G products in 2027 being only in single digits. The growth in demand is mainly driven by the expansion of AI server racks, upgrades in network architecture, and the continuous upgrade of optical modules to higher speeds. The surveyed companies expect that the overall demand in the Chinese market will achieve double-digit growth, exceeding 50 million units, with 800G and 400G still being the main products, while 1.6T is in the early stages of volume production. Goldman Sachs pointed out that industry constraints are shifting from the demand side to the supply side, with key components such as DSPs, lasers, and PCBs continuing to be in short supply, which may limit actual shipments in 2027. Leading manufacturers are locking in production capacity through advance payments, long-term supply agreements, and investments in suppliers, which may further strengthen industry concentration and support the price performance of high-speed optical modules. Goldman Sachs also expects that shipments of CPO switches will increase from 10,000 units in 2026 to 92,000 units in 2027 and 131,000 units in 2028, with testing and coupling equipment manufacturers likely to benefit first. Robotec's revenue grew by 172% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, exceeding Goldman Sachs' expectation of 141%, and the visibility of related equipment orders has extended to 2028.