IMF Raises Inflation Forecast, Increasing Bitcoin Interest Burden

The IMF has raised its global inflation forecasts for this year and next, highlighting the interest burden on the Bitcoin (BTC) market. The prolonged war in Iran and the potential for a sharp correction in AI-related stocks have also been identified as risk factors. The IMF maintains the global economic growth rate at 3.1% for this year and has increased next year's forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 3.4%. In contrast, the global inflation rate has been adjusted upward by 0.3 percentage points to 4.7% for this year and by 0.4 percentage points to 4.1% for next year. The inflation rate in the United States is expected to be 3.6% this year and 2.8% next year, both exceeding the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. If high interest rates persist, the investment appeal of Bitcoin may weaken, and investors might shift funds to government bonds offering higher yields. The IMF assumes the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond will be 4.5% this year and 4.6% next year. If the war in Iran continues until mid-next year, international oil prices could rise to $130 per barrel, and major central banks in developed countries are expected to raise interest rates further. The volatility in the AI industry could also impact Bitcoin prices. Bitcoin fell to around $81,000 about an hour before the IMF report was released but recovered to above $83,000 on the morning of the 13th.

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