Interview with a Renowned Crypto Analyst: Don't Expect Precise Bottom Calls, the 200-Week Moving Average Remains a Good Investment Opportunity

Source: "Milk Road Show"

Compiled by: Felix, PANews

The podcast "Milk Road Show" recently interviewed crypto analyst Rob. Rob is a well-known content creator and market analyst in the crypto space, as well as the host of the YouTube channel Digital Asset News, where he has long focused on cryptocurrencies, macroeconomic trends, and market dynamics.

The interview highlighted Bitcoin's fluctuations near the 200-week moving average and analyzed whether this indicates the arrival of a bear market bottom. Rob shared his strategy of incrementally increasing his position based on risk levels and expressed concerns about asset security and vulnerabilities in cold wallets. Regarding the current situation, Rob advised investors to mitigate risks through diversified custody solutions.

Host: Bitcoin's price has finally reclaimed the 200-week moving average, which usually signifies the establishment of a bear market bottom. However, during bear markets, prices can sometimes linger around this level for a long time. Do you think we have hit the bottom here, or is there more bear market turbulence ahead?

Rob: That's a great question. Honestly, I hope the market hasn't hit the bottom yet. Historically, the area around the 200-week moving average has always been an excellent buying opportunity. If we trace back to 2015, when Bitcoin was still cheap and investing in Bitcoin seemed crazy, the price briefly dipped below the 200-week moving average and quickly rebounded. By 2018, after experiencing the historic highs of 2017 (when I first entered the field), the price did dip below the 200-week moving average to some extent. Many people were lamenting, saying, "Everything is going to zero, it will never come back." But those who were smart just said, "No, I will continue to accumulate through dollar-cost averaging (DCA)." Then in 2020, the global COVID-19 pandemic hit, and the market was in extreme panic. Bitcoin again fell below the 200-week moving average, which was another very cheap "golden buying point."

Fast forward to 2022, Bitcoin fell below the 200-week moving average, even dipping below the 250-week and 300-week moving averages. Now, Bitcoin is testing this range repeatedly, possibly slightly above the 200-week moving average. For me, this is a very good time for dollar-cost averaging.

I don't want to repeat the mistakes of 2022. At that time, I made a foolish mistake, which I call "micro dollar-cost averaging," where I reduced my weekly investment amount out of fear that prices would continue to plummet, thinking I would buy more when it dropped lower. If I had stuck to my original plan (normal dollar-cost averaging and increasing my buy amount when prices fell), my position would be much better than it is now. Although I performed reasonably well, everyone would agree that buying Bitcoin at $15,000, $16,000, or $17,000 in 2022, or at $3,000 in 2018, was definitely a very wise choice.

So, to answer your question: I hope we haven't hit the bottom yet. Let's see if the four-year cycle will play out perfectly as before, or if the current situation is just a very attractive buying window.

Host: Dollar-cost averaging and holding long-term are indeed easier said than done. One of your well-known practices is "dollar-cost averaging Bitcoin every Monday without fail." Can you walk us through how you developed this strategy and how it works in practice?

Rob: My approach combines a risk model. Simply put, when Bitcoin's price drops, the risk level also decreases. When the risk level is between 0.5 and 0.6, I start regular buying. Once the risk level falls below 0.49, I double the amount I bought the previous Monday. If by the next Monday the risk level drops to 0.39, I quadruple it. If it continues to plummet and falls below 0.29, I will buy eight times the amount.

I must admit, at the beginning of these risk ranges, I thought, "This is pretty easy." But as prices continued to drop, I had to manually increase my buying amount. However, the operation is not difficult because I use Cash App, which automatically triggers the dollar-cost averaging every Monday at 6:30 AM. Many people ask me why I use Cash App. It's because if set to automatic recurring purchases, its fees are very low, almost negligible, and the spread is quite good, likely facilitated through OTC (over-the-counter) trading.

So to summarize: the lower the price, the more I double, quadruple, or even octuple my purchases. I don't overthink it; I just firmly believe that buying now is likely a good deal in the long run.

Host: So at this moment, in this doubling, quadrupling, and octupling range, where do you stand?

Rob: I'm not currently looking at specific real-time data, but the current risk level is around 0.3, so I'm in the quadruple buying phase. Once it further drops below this level, I will start dollar-cost averaging eight times. Honestly, every time I trigger these large purchases, my bank even calls to ask me, "Hey, is this transaction initiated by you?" I reply, "Yes, that's right." Now they are used to it and no longer call because it is indeed a significant amount of money.

Host: It's good that the bank has someone to help you ensure security. Since you aggressively dollar-cost average during bear markets, do you also employ a similar "dollar-cost selling" strategy during bull markets, or do you just hold?

Rob: During the bull market of 2021, I did a better job of taking profits. At that time, I simply set clear price targets and sold in batches. My approach was to use "fractal indicators." I would compare the previous cycle's gains (for example, 2x, 3x, or 4x) and then tell myself: once Bitcoin's price rises 2x from the cycle bottom, I will cash out a small portion of profits. When it rises to 4x, I will cash out another portion, and so on.

But by 2025, I felt I should be smarter, so I started relying on various technical indicators, such as MVRV scores, P/E ratios, etc. I thought these indicators would never let me down, but unfortunately, they failed.

In fact, the wisest move at that time was to listen to a user who posted on Reddit three years ago. He asserted that based solely on the four-year cycle timeframe, October 6, 2025, would be the absolute peak of this cycle. At that time, I thought, how is that possible? And what happened? October 6 really was the peak of that cycle.

So, although I didn't perfectly time the top, I did manage to cash out some profits during the price decline. I believe no one can truly buy at the lowest and sell at the highest. In the upcoming four-year cycle, I will continue to adhere to the strategy of taking profits in batches.

I know some people will say, "Rob, you should never sell your Bitcoin." But everyone has their own life goals, and mine is different from yours. Being debt-free and no longer suffocated by debt is a wonderful feeling. Bitcoin is indeed great; it is the best currency issuance mechanism. But for me, cashing out a portion of Bitcoin profits and reallocating them into what I consider more stable assets (like the S&P 500 index, bonds, or real estate) allows me to sleep better at night. Of course, most of my assets remain in Bitcoin, not altcoins.

Host: In the past few weeks and even months, Bitcoin's volatility has hit historic lows, even calmer than gold and U.S. stocks. In this narrow trading range that has been stagnant for two to three months, do you see any short-term catalysts that could break the monotony and reignite Bitcoin's volatility?

Rob: It's hard to predict. Because whenever there is a potential good news, it is always accompanied by various negative factors and FUD. For example, the AI bubble might burst, or certain cold wallet devices could experience massive hacking attacks, both of which are possibilities.

On the positive side, I previously hoped that the "Clarity Act" would pass, which could have brought positive momentum and market dynamics. Unfortunately, it ultimately did not pass. Given that it is an election year, the Democrats clearly do not want to give Trump a political achievement that would allow him to conduct a victory tour and mock the Democrats, so they directly vetoed it.

So what other positive factors are there? We see Wall Street institutions accelerating their entry. For instance, Citigroup, the third-largest bank globally, will launch its Custody+ solution later this year, aimed at meeting all-weather demand, and will initially support Bitcoin custody. Other major institutions are also rushing in. We even have a presidential candidate who supports cryptocurrencies. Although this may primarily be to promote his World Liberty Financial plan, there are indeed candidates who have made many promises as part of their campaign platform, but unfortunately, they often struggle to deliver.

In the short term, I do not expect any significant breakthroughs. I believe the SEC and CFTC will intervene in areas where Congress fails to regulate. Congress always disappoints us, but the regulations and adjustments made by regulatory agencies may provide some help in the short term. I think it will be difficult for the market to have a super big trend before the end of this year because people used to think that the market was entirely determined by fundamentals and institutional entries, but ultimately, everything still cannot escape the rules of the four-year cycle. As long as we get out of this year's trading range and investors' sentiment shifts, we will truly see price explosions.

Host: You mentioned many interesting points, especially regarding hacking incidents, but I want to continue discussing regulation. Although the "Clarity Act" has stalled, it hasn't completely died; it has just been postponed to September. On the day we recorded the podcast, President Trump was meeting with several leaders in the crypto industry at the White House. Do you think this meeting could release any signals that truly impact the market or are worth investors' attention? Or is it just another "show"?

Rob: I certainly hope it can lead to substantial progress. But I see that Trump's World Liberty Financial plan has just obtained a temporary charter bank license from the OCC, and they are trying to enter the stablecoin space. The stablecoin they currently have ranks about fifth globally, which could help strengthen the dollar's position worldwide.

I believe President Trump will strongly promote this matter because it greatly benefits his family plan. There are supporters for this matter, and naturally, there are opponents as well. But if we return to the "control circle," what can ordinary investors truly control? We cannot control a sitting or incoming U.S. president to create their own crypto business project. If he can communicate with everyone in the White House and actually push for congressional legislation, that would be great. But in my view, it largely remains a political gesture.

Host: Another major event: the SEC voted to approve and launch the so-called "crypto regulatory framework." This framework clarifies how digital assets operate in the U.S., including initial coin offerings (ICOs), financing, and providing "innovation exemptions" for projects still in the network construction phase. What is your response to the SEC's move? Do you see this as a positive development?

Rob: Regarding the regulations on ICOs, I can only say that the government's actions have been ongoing for a full five to six years. If these rules had been implemented back in 2017 when I first entered the industry, and ICOs were rampant with the market growing wildly, I would have been very grateful. At that time, if you invested in the right projects, you could indeed make a fortune.

I believe the involvement of the SEC and CFTC is beneficial for capital allocation. I studied the new regulations, and within four years, there are almost no restrictions on fundraising below $5 million, with a cap of up to $75 million. If these policies are implemented, there will be a continuous influx of funds into the crypto space.

But what I really worry about is whether we really need to cram more new crypto projects, altcoins, and DeFi startups into this already chaotic "melting pot"? Everyone is coming in saying, "I have a brand new token, new features, or the next greatest DeFi invention." While free market competition is good, how many types of altcoins are there on the market now?

Host: It depends on how you define and count them, but there are at least millions.

Rob: Exactly, up to millions. My personal view is that we should focus on those mainstream altcoins that have already been tested by the market and proven their resilience, and build on top of them. If everyone is willing, we could even consider Bitcoin as the ultimate settlement layer, just as people envisioned in the early days. So, while I am glad to see the SEC and CFTC providing proactive regulatory intervention, I do not think this will be the super catalyst that turns the market around.

Host: Recently, there have been a series of security breaches. From Coldcard to Trezor to last week's SafePal, these breaches and hacks have seriously shaken ordinary investors' confidence in "self-custody." I wonder what your thoughts are: will the core concept of self-custody be severely impacted by these continuous incidents? What should the average person do in the face of these concerns?

Rob: Some might say this is purely coincidental, as traditional giants like Citigroup have just announced their entry into Bitcoin custody, and a large number of third-party custody services are emerging, with the timing perfectly overlapping. But you must realize that devices like Coldcard have been operating securely for many years. Regardless of any conspiracy theories behind it, the unchanging fact is that many people have lost their life savings in these incidents.

If we are still promoting "self-custody is the only way forward for finance," I believe it is not suitable for everyone. A few years ago, the well-known quantitative analyst PlanB said on X, "I want to transfer all my assets into ETFs." This is someone who has been deeply involved in the crypto industry for many years and knows all the risks and technical details of self-custody, but he clearly stated, "I don't want to deal with it anymore; 'no keys, no coins' is certainly true, but now 'no keys, no worries' applies more to me.

Another industry figure, Simon Dixon, has a different perspective. He believes that this series of wallet security crises is a carefully orchestrated public relations battle aimed at scaring away ordinary users and forcing everyone to give up self-custody and return to traditional custodial institutions.

For me, I receive desperate emails from fans every one or two weeks. They write, "Rob, I just lost all my life savings." In the past, this was mostly due to users' ignorance and negligence (for example, falling for phishing sites). But now, the situation has changed. Brands like Ledger, SafePal, and several other cold wallet brands have had their security protections or company databases hacked, leading to the leakage of users' personal sensitive information (such as home addresses, email addresses, and phone numbers). This allows hackers to directly target you, creating significant offline personal and asset safety risks.

Worse still, we can no longer fully trust the technology and underlying algorithms of hardware wallets themselves. This reminds me of a saying: "The scary thing is not what I know, nor what I know I don't know, but what I don't know I don't know."

In the realm of self-custody, I am not all-knowing. If I had delved into the potential pitfalls of cold wallets earlier, perhaps I could have warned everyone in advance. What I worry about most is that one day, a mainstream cold wallet suddenly announces, "Sorry, we discovered a long-hidden underlying code vulnerability through AI, and we apologize for causing thousands of users to lose their Bitcoins."

Some might say I am spreading FUD. But I believe that those who suffered losses due to the Coldcard vulnerability surely wished they had heard more warnings like this at the time.

To mitigate this risk, I have adopted a diversification strategy. I keep part of my funds on Ledger, a significant portion on Tangem, and I also use the custody services of iTrust Capital. At the same time, I will put some into ETFs.

Host: This approach contains great wisdom, and my operations are very similar to yours. On one hand, we want to have autonomy and control over our assets, but on the other hand, we cannot bear the huge costs brought by a single point of failure. Diversifying risks and using combined custody is indeed the best practice. How did you gradually explore this combined custody solution?

Rob: This is because I once invited former Los Angeles Raiders star player Steve Wisniewski onto my show. He is a future Hall of Famer who invested over $3.2 million in Bitcoin. However, he ultimately lost everything due to a carefully designed phishing scam.

In the show, he detailed the entire process for us. That interview had a profound impact on me; I realized that even someone as smart as Steve could fall victim, let alone countless ordinary people. Sometimes, you might have printed your recovery phrase on paper and stuffed it in some corner five years ago, and you forgot about it, only to find out that information leaked through some channel.

I have received too many desperate emails, with people asking me, "Rob, who should I contact? How do I explain this to my wife? How do I pay for my child's college tuition?" I can only helplessly tell them, "In the world of self-custody, once the chips are lost, no one can help you. You can call the police, contact the FBI, and I can recommend on-chain recovery services like ZachXBT, but you will never get it back."

Losing 25% of your assets is painful, but the most tragic thing is losing 100% of your entire fortune. I hope to protect more people rather than watch them blindly engage in self-custody without any safety net.

Host: Since you focus most of your energy on Bitcoin, does your investment portfolio still include a place for altcoins? In this bear market, are you also dollar-cost averaging or holding certain altcoins? What is your overall outlook on the altcoin market?

Rob: I view altcoins from the perspective of practical application. We know that stablecoins will shine in the future and further strengthen the global dominance of the dollar. I researched the on-chain analytics platform under Visa, which tracks the on-chain data of major public chains when carrying mainstream stablecoins (like Tether and Circle). The data is very honest; the same four chains always rank at the top. I refer to the tokens of these four chains as the "BEST" combination: Binance Coin (BNB), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Tron (TRX).

These are the "Four Kings" of altcoins in my eyes. Of course, there are other good projects on the market, such as Polygon. But my personal funds are limited, and I cannot spread my money across every project. Some might say, "Although the transaction volume of stablecoin channels reaches trillions of dollars, this is just a tiny part of what determines token price increases." They are right; payments are just one part of the fundamentals, and the biggest driver of token prices, to put it bluntly, is speculation.

Host: In future markets, will you consider broadening your horizons beyond this "BEST" combination to allocate some smaller market cap dark horse projects?

Rob: If the market environment changes, my strategy will also change; I always keep an open mind. For example, I will pay attention to the progress of the Canton chain in RWA tokenization. If you go to rwa.xyz and break down the data by chain, you will find that the Canton chain occupies a huge market share. Additionally, I have been closely monitoring the activity and trading volume on Hyperliquid, which is quite impressive.

But every time I examine these emerging projects, I torture myself: Is it really worth breaking my existing solid positions to take the risk of diversifying my investments? The current answer is: not worth it. My altcoin positions remain very tight.

Because historical laws tell us: If the traditional financial market (like the US stock market) sneezes, Bitcoin will catch a cold; and once Bitcoin catches a cold, altcoins will be directly "sent to the ICU with a ventilator." This is the unchanging trajectory of the crypto market.

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