July Personal Consumption Expenditure Inflation Expected to Increase

The inflation rate of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) in the U.S. for July is expected to be higher than in June. According to Moon Da-un, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, the PCE headline index is estimated to rise by 0.13% compared to the previous month, while the core index is projected to increase by 0.21%. The figures for June were -0.11% and 0.13%, respectively. The PCE is an indicator that reflects the price changes of goods and services consumed by U.S. consumers, and the Federal Reserve uses it as a key inflation measure. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to release the personal income and expenditure statistics for July on August 26 at 9:30 PM. This forecast is based on the trends of the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reporting that the July CPI rose by 0.1% and the core CPI by 0.2% compared to the previous month. Researcher Moon predicts that if international oil prices maintain their current levels, the PCE headline could rise to 3.8% to 3.9% in the fourth quarter, highlighting the impact of energy prices on inflation. Market reactions to the PCE announcement should be assessed after the actual figures are confirmed.

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