Kalshi Records $2.5 Billion in Midterm Election Prediction Market Trading Volume

In the U.S. midterm elections, Kalshi and Polymarket have gained attention as prediction markets. Kalshi reported a 98% probability of victory for the leading candidate on election day. Prediction markets reflect the changing dynamics faster than broadcasts, allowing investors to adjust trading prices immediately. On the 4th, Bloomberg columnist Matt Levin evaluated these platforms as useful for real-time understanding of the election landscape. At 6:30 PM on election day, following the initial vote count results in Indiana, expectations for the Democratic Party's performance increased. Kalshi indicated a 98% chance of the Democrats taking control of the Senate at 8:30 PM. The trading volume reached $2.5 billion, serving as an economic incentive. Prediction markets are showing movements to collaborate with CNN, CBS News, and others to integrate data into existing election coverage. However, risks of market manipulation and insider trading remain. According to Kalshi, about three-quarters of users utilize the platform to check probability information without depositing funds.

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