Tonight, prior to the release of US employment data, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in January next year is 24.4%.
BlockBeats News, December 16th. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, tonight before the release of US employment data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 24.4%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 75.6%.
The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged until March next year is 49%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 42.4%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 8.6%. The dates of the Fed's next two FOMC meetings are January 28th and March 18th, 2026.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce the US November seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll data and the US November unemployment rate data tonight at 21:30 (UTC+8). The expected values are US November seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls (in thousands) at 4, and the US November unemployment rate at 4.40%.
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