4 New Accounts Place $548,700 Bet Predicting “Iranian Regime Will Collapse Within a Year”

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 4 new accounts have collectively wagered $548.7k on the fall of the Iranian regime. Among them, $136.6k was wagered on "Iranian regime falls before May," current price 15.5¢; $322.2k was wagered on "Iranian regime falls before June 30," current price 28.5¢.

Based on the settlement rules, the outcome "Yes" must meet the conditions of the Iranian current regime being overthrown, collapsed, or ceased to rule, and the core power structures (such as the Office of the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, and the Revolutionary Guards under clerical leadership) being dissolved, paralyzed, or replaced by an entirely new political entity. Regular elections, leadership changes, and internal coups retaining the core structures do not meet the settlement criteria.

The recent U.S. military strike on Iran's key energy hub on Khark Island targeted military objectives like missile shelters, deliberately avoiding the oil terminal handling 90% of Iran's crude oil exports. Crude oil exports are essential for funding the Iranian government and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the avoidance of this facility indicates that Trump may be seeking to prevent a further surge in global oil prices.

On the domestic front, the decentralized power structure established by former Supreme Leader Khamenei has kept the regime functioning amid significant damage at the top levels. However, this structure has also highlighted the increasing risk of internal factionalism, as seen when Iranian President Raisi publicly apologized for the Gulf states' attacks, drawing swift and harsh criticism from domestic hardliners.

Additionally, the spreading conflict has led to severe water and fuel shortages, blackouts, and supply chain disruptions in several parts of Iran. The country has been in nearly total internet blackout for 13 consecutive days. Apart from proposing ceasefire terms that involve recognition of legitimate rights and compensation, Iran's Foreign Minister publicly announced that the Strait of Hormuz would only be closed to the U.S., Israel, and their allies, allowing free passage to other countries' ships.

Accounts:
0xa2536f292681daff7a048ab51fab6bdf81ecc48f
0x94a88422bca9af3db3045ddbe5f8f6d3be185204
0xab856ec4e602ba8ea4b2c1f99958230aa34a5da3
0xbc961db7fc908735f34443f97ea78775deecb2a7

Total Staked: $548.7k
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