Bitcoin: 81% of the supply has not moved in six months

Six million three hundred thousand bitcoins remain still. For at least six months, 81% of the circulating BTC has not left its address. This is unprecedented, according to the graph published by River based on data from blockhorizon.io. Thus, only about 3.7 million coins are in motion out of approximately 20 million bitcoins in circulation.

Looking for sellers? They are becoming scarce. The oldest segment of the market hasn’t budged an inch: 1 bitcoin out of 6 has been dormant for over ten years. However, the price has nearly regained 50% since its low in June.
Key points of this article:

• About 16.3 million BTC, or 81% of the supply, have not moved in six months or more: a record on the curve published by River.
• The price has regained nearly half of its value since June without an influx of buyers, a rise that River attributes to the scarcity of supply.

Bitcoin supply: the floating supply is melting away

On September 23, River dedicated its newsletter to this phenomenon. "For once, there is a real supply shock on bitcoin," writes this American bitcoin brokerage firm. The numbers follow.

Long-term holders have added more than 3 million bitcoins to their positions since 2020. This refers to investors who let their BTC sit for months or even years.

The previous cycle had followed the opposite path. In 2024 and 2025, nearly 4 million BTC that had been dormant for over three years changed hands, according to data from Galaxy Research cited by River. By the first half of 2026, these old coins have dwindled to about 300,000 that have moved. Never before have so many bitcoins remained immobile for six months or more. Source: River, data from blockhorizon.io

Bitcoin rises without buyers, the paradox of the rebound

At the beginning of June, BTC fell below $60,000, its lowest since October 2024 according to CNBC. It then regained nearly 50% until its peak in September, above $87,000.

Demand, however, is lagging. Volumes on trading platforms have decreased by 30% since January. As of September 23, bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds that buy BTC for their clients) had absorbed only about 18,000 BTC since the beginning of the month. This figure, recorded before the late September influx, remains below their monthly average since their launch in 2024.

River draws a straightforward conclusion. "If demand is not driving this rally, it means the rise is driven by supply," summarizes the company. It describes a simple mechanism where coins pass from traders to long-term holders until no one wants to sell at the current price.

Bear market for bitcoin: the shortest and least deep

At the low in June, BTC had lost 52% compared to its all-time high of $126,080 on October 6, 2025. Today, it remains about 34% below that peak. Previous bear markets had wiped out between 77% and 85% of bitcoin's value. According to River, this bear cycle is also about a hundred days shorter than the shortest of its predecessors. The company now considers the end of the bear market more likely.

Beware of overly cautious curves. River's graph shows that the dormant supply had already peaked at the end of 2017, in 2021, and then in 2024, each time when the old holders sold during the rise. Such a thin floating supply amplifies movements in both directions. River acknowledges this: "What is missing is a real increase in demand."

For those looking to position themselves in such a tight market, our guide to buying bitcoin details the steps, from choosing a platform registered with the AMF to securing your BTC in a wallet.

The large historical wallets have chosen their side, and we had already noted that long-term holders are not sellers. Bitcoin, however, slipped to $83,000 on Monday, September 28, weighed down by Donald Trump's rejection of the Iranian ceasefire plan and the rise in oil prices.

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