BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF: The Most Relevant Indicator of a Bullish Reversal? Analysis by Vincent Ganne

Illustration generated with OpenAI

21 Sep 2026Vincent Ganne

Three Bitcoin Indicators for Technical Analysis

The spot price of Bitcoin (BTC/USD or BTC/EUR) is by far the most analyzed index by technical analysts in financial markets. The spot market for BTC synthesizes supply and demand across all crypto exchanges and is the primary market for BTC.

However, it is possible to have an even sharper analysis by also looking at Bitcoin futures contracts from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and BlackRock's BTC ETF, which has the ticker IBIT.

Why? Because US high finance is precisely on the CME's BTC futures contract, the Bitcoin futures from the Chicago Exchange, as well as on the largest Bitcoin ETF in the world, that of BlackRock.

It is therefore crucial that the bullish reversal technical signals in place on the Bitcoin price since the beginning of summer are confirmed by the technical signals from these two institutional markets.

Let's review the technical steps of the bullish reversal observed on BlackRock's BTC ETF since the beginning of July.

The chart below displays the weekly candlesticks of BlackRock's BTC ETF.

The Steps of the Bullish Reversal Since Late June

The technical analysis of BlackRock's ETF is particularly instructive as it follows all the classic steps of a bullish reversal.

First, there was the previous bull run broken down into 5 waves, the usual 5 waves of the Elliott wave cycle. Then, the classic three-phase "bear market".

The low point of July 1st was highlighted by: a bullish divergence in price/momentum, the Fibonacci retracement ratio of 78.6%, and the crossing in August of the 200-day moving average. This latter now serves as support and invalidation of the cyclical bullish reversal of the Bitcoin price.

What's next? There is now an inverse head and shoulders pattern; this is a bullish reversal configuration. However, the activation line has not yet been crossed, which is the technical resistance of 82,800 US dollars on the Bitcoin price. It will then be necessary to enter the weekly cloud of the Ichimoku system; this may still take some time.

But now, as long as the Bitcoin price remains above its 200-day moving average, the new cyclical bullish trend is prevailing.

Vincent Ganne427 articles
Vincent Ganne is a recognized expert in technical analysis with 18 years of experience. He frequently appears on BFM Business and produces exclusive analyses for Cryptoast Research. With his extensive experience, Vincent offers a comprehensive approach to financial markets, taking into account macroeconomic events and using various aspects of graphical analysis to forecast trends in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the medium and long term. He also served as Senior Market Analyst & Business Development Manager for 3 years at TradingView, further enhancing his deep knowledge of financial markets.

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