CoinShares: Bitcoin Faces Three Major Pressures from Fed Hawkishness, Iranian Situation, and Legislative Hurdles

CoinShares has released a report stating that Bitcoin is facing three major pressures: the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, uncertainty surrounding the situation in Iran, and obstacles to the advancement of the Clarity Act. The minutes from the June FOMC meeting indicate that the Fed is maintaining interest rates at 3.50%-3.75%, but has removed dovish language, with the risk of a rate hike still present in September. The core PCE inflation rate was 3.3% in April and is expected to be 3.4% in May. The fragility of the ceasefire agreement in Iran has intensified geopolitical pressures, making Bitcoin more inclined towards macro asset trading. Bitcoin ETFs have seen a record outflow of approximately $8 billion over eight consecutive weeks, but there has been an inflow in the past three trading days, suggesting the market may be approaching a capitulation phase. Strategy's holdings account for about 4% of the total supply, and the market reacted strongly when it first sold 32 BTC, but by early July, when it sold 3,588 BTC, the market had absorbed it smoothly, indicating that the marginal impact has significantly weakened. The Clarity Act lacks the momentum for a full chamber vote, with core disputes unresolved, and the predicted probability of market passage has dropped from 74% a month ago to about 48%. Overall, the market remains under pressure but has not collapsed, existing in a fragile bottoming phase.

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