Dollar in 2027: Estimated Shortfall of $15 Billion to Pay Debt in a Stress Scenario

A private consulting firm analyzed the risks posed by the financial program in the event of a stress scenario during 2027. Specifically, they estimated a possible shortfall of $15 billion to meet debt commitments.** Meanwhile, another analysis forecasted that a 10% jump in the exchange rate above the budgeted amount would be enough to break the long-awaited fiscal balance.

Thus, the city wonders whether the dollars accumulated throughout 2026 and the favorable shock of international prices will be enough to alleviate the financial fears that usually weigh on Argentina in election years. The answer depends on the likelihood of truly risky scenarios for the demanding targets set by the Government for 2027.

Record External Accounts and Debt Placements: How 2026 Closes

The C-P consulting firm highlighted in a report how external accounts are closing in 2026. On one hand, they noted the sustained increases in the prices of Argentina's main export products as a result of the international shock derived from the war in the Middle East. The values of energy, mining, and agricultural commodities rose, significantly contributing to the growth of exports.

The trade balance of goods for the accumulated year exceeded $21 billion as of September. "We project that in 2026 it will reach a new historical maximum, exceeding $28 billion," C-P expanded.

However, the supply of dollars did not only come from the record trade surplus. The foreign exchange market also benefited from financial flows associated with private debt. "In the accumulated total until August, the contributions of financial debt to the foreign exchange market reached $13 billion, also the highest record in the historical series."

In the breakdown, it was mentioned that the placements of new debt securities in foreign currency in the local market allowed for the acquisition of $5.2 billion. This figure was supplemented by support from international organizations, through guarantees for a loan from banks amounting to $3.2 billion and the extension of the REPO terms that the BCRA agreed with international banks for $6 billion.

Furthermore, the city agrees in pointing out that, despite the very good exchange results of 2026, the reserve position remains fragile. Throughout the year, the BCRA bought $16 billion, and net international reserves improved by $9.1 billion.

The "Risks" for Debt Commitments in 2027

Looking ahead, C-P made a projection on how the flows of the foreign exchange market would react to a scenario of extreme financial tensions during the next election year and constructed a hypothetical stress scenario. In that case, the projections of the current and financial accounts of the private sector indicate an estimated shortfall of $10 billion to meet debt payments.

If this scenario materializes, it means that the dollar market (before the payment of public sector debt obligations) would reverse this year's positive balance and require compensatory interventions (dollar sales).

In turn, the Treasury's dollar financial program poses additional risks under a stress scenario. According to the same report, the planning published by the authorities presents two problems for 2027. Firstly, it does not account for the BOPREAL maturities that the BCRA will have to face, which they estimated at $5.1 billion.

Secondly, it heavily relies on two sources of financing that had good results in 2026 but faced significant difficulties in the last election year: the placements of public debt in dollars in the local market; and the purchases of reserves by the BCRA.

An Exchange Jump Would Generate "Risk" Scenarios for the Budget

In the quest to test the Government's projections for the coming year, Zentrix Consulting also analyzed a few weeks ago what the risk scenarios are for the execution of the 2027 Budget Project. To do this, one must start from the assumptions already discounted by the Government: the continuity of the surplus and disinflation, but built on a demanding basis since revenue must grow by 5.6% in real terms next year, when so far in 2026 it has accumulated a decline of 3.8%.

One of the main conclusions they reached is that the 2027 Budget was constructed with an extraordinarily reduced margin of error. "In the National Administration, the primary surplus exceeds debt interest by just $0.25 trillion, equivalent to 1.6%, so a relatively small deviation in revenue or an increase in spending is enough to consume the entire fiscal cushion," they highlighted and went further by stating that only a dollar 10% above the expected value would increase the interest on foreign currency debt by around $1.7 trillion.

On that basis, other risk factors that could strain the execution of the budget overlap. "The demand for dollars by individuals was already absorbing around 90% of the currencies liquidated by agriculture as of September, while the Treasury expects to obtain about $21.1 billion to meet its financial commitments during 2027. At the same time, the budget relies on refinancing debt in pesos for 110% of the maturities and on a recovery of activity that allows reversing a revenue that until August had accumulated a real decline of 3.8%,"** they described regarding the demanding targets.

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