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    3. [Editorial] In a Market Where Uncertainty is the Norm, 'Resilience' Ultimately Determines Success

    [Editorial] In a Market Where Uncertainty is the Norm, 'Resilience' Ultimately Determines Success

    By: rootdata|2026/08/08 08:22:46
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    The term that will describe the global financial market in 2026 is not interest rates, oil prices, or artificial intelligence. It is uncertainty.

    From the direction of U.S. monetary policy to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz, tariff conflicts, energy prices, the AI investment boom, cyber attacks, and climate disasters, the variables shaking the market are endless. It has become commonplace for one shock to end just before another one arrives.

    Recent movements in U.S. Treasury yields illustrate this. As speculation arose that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might tighten policy if inflation rises again, interest rates increased. However, it is difficult to interpret this simply as a hawkish signal. If market interest rates rise first, the financial conditions themselves tighten, which may actually reduce the necessity for the Fed to raise rates further.

    Market expectations change policies, and expectations about policies in turn move the market. Currently, the market is in a state where it is difficult to be certain about which path it will take rather than the direction itself.

    The energy market is no different. Even if oil prices temporarily drop due to negotiations surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, the fundamental risks have not disappeared. What needs to be watched more closely than crude oil prices are the supply chains directly connected to the real economy, such as diesel, marine fuel, and natural gas.

    A shortage of refined oil combined with Europe's winter energy demand could lead to renewed inflationary pressures. If that happens, the central bank's capacity to lower interest rates will also diminish. Conflicts in the Middle East move oil prices, which in turn stimulate inflation, and inflation affects interest rates, exchange rates, and both stock and cryptocurrency markets.

    The recent significant fluctuations in the Korean stock market are also related to these global trends. The index has been swinging dramatically as U.S. interest rates, AI investment prospects, semiconductor expectations, and foreign capital flows intertwine. This is more a reflection of the amplified expectations and anxieties of global capital rather than a significant change in corporate value over just a few days.

    In the cryptocurrency market, these movements are even faster. Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies are also not free from global liquidity, U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, and preferences for risk assets.

    However, what needs more attention now is not the daily fluctuations in asset prices.

    It is the fact that uncertainty itself is becoming the driving force of the economy.

    If companies are uncertain about the future, they delay investments. Households reduce consumption if employment and income are unstable. Investors increase cash holdings when volatility rises. The European Central Bank (ECB) has also found that shocks of uncertainty dampen corporate investment and durable goods consumption.

    However, people and markets adapt.

    As wars, tariffs, and shocks to financial markets recur, the initial fear gradually diminishes. The market drops sharply due to geopolitical conflicts, then rebounds because the situation did not worsen, and the cycle of buying risk assets again after tariff threats gives way to negotiation expectations repeats.

    The problem is that this adaptation can give rise to other risks.

    There is no guarantee that the next crisis will end the same way as the last one.

    Just because a previous war did not escalate does not mean the next one will not. There is no assurance that the experience of tariff conflicts being resolved through negotiations will be repeated in the future. While AI investments may lead to a productivity revolution, we cannot rule out the possibility of over-investment and the aftereffects of high asset prices.

    If the market becomes overly accustomed to the experience of "it will ultimately be resolved this time too," it may underestimate risks. While fear can destroy markets, unfounded optimism also needs to be guarded against.

    Conversely, confidence alone cannot lift the economy.

    If consumer sentiment improves and stock prices rise, consumption and investment may increase in the short term. However, a good atmosphere cannot replace productivity. High asset prices do not guarantee industrial competitiveness.

    Ultimately, we must return to the fundamentals of the economy.

    We need to enhance productivity, stabilize energy and supply chains, and connect technological innovation to actual industrial competitiveness. It is also important to increase the predictability of policies so that companies can make long-term investments.

    The cryptocurrency industry should be viewed through the same lens. The rise in Bitcoin prices and token market capitalization may be an indicator of industry growth. However, without real usage, technological competitiveness, sustainable business models, and institutional trust, it is difficult to explain the industry's resilience based solely on price increases.

    Our standards for viewing the market should also be based on this.

    We should not just convey how many percent prices have risen, but examine why global money is moving, where risks are accumulating, and how these changes connect to cryptocurrencies and the Korean market. It has become difficult to separate interest rates, energy, geopolitics, AI, traditional finance, and cryptocurrencies into distinct categories.

    Ultimately, what is needed is not an attempt to eliminate uncertainty, but rather to create a structure that can withstand uncertainty.

    The government should focus on enhancing industrial competitiveness, energy, supply chains, and policy trust rather than relying solely on short-term economic stimulus or market sentiment. Companies need to step away from the assumption that low interest rates and abundant liquidity will continue and reassess productivity, cash flow, and supply chains. Investors should also avoid relying solely on the experience that "it will rebound this time too."

    If uncertainty has become the new norm, the standards for competitiveness must also change.

    It is not how quickly prices rise that matters, but how well we can withstand shocks when they come.

    Market prices move quickly based on expectations.

    The strength of the economy and industry does not develop that quickly.

    This content is provided for general informational purposes only and doesn't constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Any events, rewards, online promotions, or related information mentioned herein should not be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or invitation to purchase, sell, trade, or otherwise deal in any crypto assets. Crypto assets are highly volatile and may result in loss. The availability of WEEX services, products, and related events may vary by region. You are responsible for ensuring that your participation is in accordance with applicable local laws and regulations.

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