Established Floor? Weeks of 'Catastrophes' Fail to Dampen Bitcoin Price

In recent weeks, bitcoin (BTC) has faced various blows of different natures and magnitudes. The wave of vulnerability identification in its ecosystem of products and services, following the hack of Coldcard wallets, is just one part of the seemingly catastrophic scenario.

Many events have occurred. A hack resulting in over 2,000 BTC stolen from Coldcard users, the detection of thousands of vulnerabilities in the ecosystem, and the closures of BitMEX and BitMart. Additionally, bitcoin sales from Strategy, disappointing financial results from Coinbase, and ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran have added to the mix. This is compounded by the halt of the Clarity Act in the U.S. Senate.

With their varying magnitudes, all these events were expected to negatively impact the price. Yet, none have triggered a new bearish phase. Does this mean that selling pressure is waning?

We take July 1 as a reference point, the date on which BTC marked its lowest price level this year, according to TradingView data. That day, it hit 57,800 USDT in the BTCUSDT pair on Binance, the leading exchange in the market.

Since that potential floor at the time of writing this article, BTC has risen over 12%. Right now, it is trading above 64,800 dollars.

The recovery is even more striking when closely observing the events BTC has had to absorb since then.

The case of Strategy is particularly evident. The company, a leader in bitcoin treasuries, took a step that was believed impossible for years: it began selling.

A little over 1,600 bitcoins in total is little for someone approaching 1 million coins. But in a market dominated by selling pressure, a sale from the origin of the meme "never sell your bitcoin" or "always up, Laura" should have added fuel to the bears.

Something similar happened with the closures of BitMEX and BitMart. The end of two exchanges with years of presence, without a hack or any disastrous event in between, was not a good sign.

But nothing has been worse than what happened with Coldcard. The theft of over 2,000 BTC not only represented a million-dollar loss for those affected but also called into question the security of one of the tools used precisely to reduce the risks associated with bitcoin custody.

And the fact that this alone opened the door to identifying at least 5,000 vulnerabilities in the layer of bitcoin products and services clearly does not help to dispel fears.

It was hard to imagine a scenario like the current one with bitcoin maintaining an apparent floor. But here we are.

There are boxers who stand out for the strength or speed of their punches, for how they defeat their offensively inclined rivals. Others, however, achieve glory by enduring blow after blow and staying on their feet. Bitcoin is of the second type.

The market reading, however, is far from unanimous. Some analysts are beginning to interpret bitcoin's resistance to bad news as a sign of floor formation. Others believe that there are still elements missing to confirm it.

Michaël van de Poppe is among the former. The analyst has highlighted the resilience shown by BTC, even in the face of traditionally adverse factors such as the strength of the dollar, rising bond yields, and the rebound in oil prices.

For van de Poppe, the USD 60,000 zone is crucial. Just 5 days ago, he commented that if it manages to hold as support and bitcoin establishes a higher low (a new minimum in shorter cycles within the macro cycle), the structure could progressively become more bullish. In contrast, he saw a loss of that level as a message: it increased the probability of a new drop, although he ruled out USD 40,000. Now, 5 days later and in a more adverse scenario, the first scenario still prevails.

A similar reading comes from Glassnode. The firm has described the current process as a floor formation in progress, characterized by the resistance of holders, some recovery of on-chain activity, and the absorption of the supply that appeared near recent lows.

Benjamin Cowen is even more conservative. His cycle analyses contemplate a scenario in which BTC could experience another phase of weakness, even with levels of USD 44,000-45,000 as a possibility towards the fourth quarter of this year.

But the analyst known on social media as Pentosh1 raises a particularly interesting question in the context we have described. For him, one of the most reliable signals of a floor consists precisely in ceasing to react to negative news. He mentioned this at the end of June, before this wave of catastrophes.

At that time, his reading was that bitcoin was approaching that behavior, but had not completely arrived there yet. His scenario contemplated a possible drop towards USD 48,000 before a true accumulation phase. If it was valid then, that thesis has only strengthened in the past weeks.

The truth is that no one can yet confirm that USD 57,800 was the floor. But it is also not easy to ignore the capacity bitcoin has shown to remain above that level while accumulating a succession of adverse news.

If BTC manages to stay above USD 60,000 and begins to establish higher lows, the hypothesis that July marked a floor will gain strength.