For the IMF, delinquency does not pose a risk to financial stability

"We are closely monitoring the recent increase in household delinquency rates; however, we do not consider this to represent a significant risk to the country's financial stability." This was stated by Julie Kozack, spokesperson for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) during a press conference held this Thursday in Washington.

The official downplayed the issue, stating that "basically, we observe that household debt in Argentina remains at relatively low levels: around 8% of GDP, a figure lower than that of many other Latin American countries**.

In this regard, she added that "we find that banks have adequate levels of capital and liquidity, and that they have provisions covering more than 85% of their non-performing loans**."**

The spokesperson asserted that "the banking system in the country is quite small." Therefore, "looking ahead, it will be essential to deepen these markets and facilitate mechanisms that allow channeling credit and savings from Argentinians towards investments and development opportunities."

Kozack also announced that the next IMF mission "is scheduled to begin the week of September 21 for the third review."

Kozack, in line with various expressions from the IMF, praised the program implemented by the government of Javier Milei. She stated that "Argentina has made remarkable progress in stabilizing its economy. The country has recorded primary fiscal surpluses for two consecutive years, something that had not happened in fifteen years. It has managed to reduce inflation to around 30%, resumed the path of growth, and reduced poverty."

She also noted that "international reserves are being rebuilt" and highlighted "the strengthening of market confidence, which has translated into lower borrowing costs, improvements in credit ratings, and a growing portfolio of private investment projects."

Regarding the future of the country, the organization considers that "the key priority for Argentina remains to further strengthen its policy frameworks and economic resilience."

She detailed that this involves continuing to rebuild the reserve cushion ---a process that is already underway---, continuing to reduce financing risks, preserving the established fiscal anchor, and strengthening policy frameworks to prepare the country for future disruptions.

In particular, she considered that proposals for reform aimed at strengthening the mandate and independence of the Central Bank "should contribute to the disinflation process and ultimately lead to an improvement in the real incomes of Argentine households in the long term."

When asked by Ámbito whether the decline in industrial activity and the informality of the economy could affect the economic program, Kozack stated that "both the Fund and the Argentine authorities recognize the importance of broadening the scope of the benefits derived from stabilization and growth".

She acknowledged that "so far, growth has been driven mainly by the energy, mining, and agricultural sectors; both we and the authorities are aware that it would be beneficial to diversify this momentum."

In this regard, she indicated that "efforts are being made to overcome infrastructure bottlenecks by bidding for large road networks and freight railway systems, initiatives backed by greater fiscal and regulatory predictability."

Simultaneously, she concluded by stating that "efforts continue to deepen credit markets in Argentina, including the development of market mechanisms to promote long-term financing markets, such as mortgage credit."

At the end of July, the managing director of the organization, Kristalina Georgieva, visited Argentina and met with President Javier Milei and Economy Minister Luis Caputo.

During this visit, she acknowledged the advances in macroeconomic stabilization being carried out by the official administration, highlighting the decrease in inflation and the shift from deficit to primary surplus. In particular, she publicly congratulated the government and the Central Bank (BCRA) for "exceeding" the currency accumulation target, leaving a very direct message to the authorities: "Keep buying."

They took her advice, and so far this year, the BCRA has acquired around 14 billion dollars in reserves, an unprecedented amount that exceeds the annual target set by the IMF of 10 billion. Market sources project that the monetary authority could add as much as 18 billion dollars by 2026.

During her visit to the country, Georgieva also warned about the challenge of translating the results the government is achieving in macroeconomic terms into formal employment and improvements for SMEs.

However, the latest official figures reveal that the economic activity is moving at two speeds, with a contrast between the dynamism of sectors linked to exports (agriculture, mining, and energy) and the depression of those dependent on the local market (industry, commerce, and construction).**

The declines recorded in both manufacturing activity and construction in July - between 4.5 and 5%, in both month-on-month and year-on-year comparisons - were downplayed by official sources. It was noted that particular factors, such as many rainy days, influenced these results.

However, various indicators tend to show a complicated outlook for the local market. Thus, the tax collection data for August shows that taxes linked to domestic consumption recorded real declines of 6% in the case of VAT, and 9% concerning the check tax.

Contacts between government authorities at the international level continued at the beginning of this month when Caputo participated in the meeting of finance ministers and central bank presidents of the G20 in Asheville, North Carolina. There, he met with Georgieva and Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury Secretary and central figure in Washington's support for the government during the 2025 currency crisis.

During those days, the Trump official was once again complimentary about the country. He stated: "We have a historic opportunity in the Western Hemisphere led by Argentina and the reforms they have implemented there." He added: "Everyone said it couldn't be done, and now we are seeing how inflation is decreasing and a change in economic conditions."

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