US September CPI Preview: Core CPI Growth Slows, Overall CPI Rises to 3.7% Year-on-Year

Several Wall Street firms expect that the core CPI in the US will slow to a month-on-month growth of 0.21% in September, down from 0.29% in August. Driven by rising energy prices, the overall CPI is expected to rise to a month-on-month growth of 0.58%, with a year-on-year growth close to 3.7%. The median forecast from institutions indicates that the overall CPI in the US will increase by 0.58% month-on-month and 3.64% year-on-year; the core CPI is expected to rise by 0.21% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year. The median forecast for the month-on-month growth of core PCE is 0.21%. Deutsche Bank predicts a month-on-month increase of 0.16% for the core CPI, which is the lowest forecast; Morgan Stanley expects the overall CPI to rise by 0.62%, which is the highest forecast. Overall, the market anticipates a moderation in core inflation pressures, but rising energy prices may push overall inflation higher.

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