Major U.S. banks have raised their forecasts for August core PCE inflation, with Barclays, Goldman Sachs, Nomura, Bank of America and TD Securities all moving estimates higher ahead of the next Federal Reserve policy decision.

According to the figures cited in the report, Barclays raised its August core PCE forecast to 0.25% from 0.22%, while Goldman Sachs lifted its estimate to 0.26% from 0.24%. Nomura increased its projection to 0.278% from 0.245%. Bank of America and TD Securities were cited at 0.30% and 0.32%, respectively.

The revisions were framed against August price data, including a U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report showing final demand producer prices rose 0.4% from the previous month and 5.4% from a year earlier. Producer price data often feeds into market estimates for PCE because it can shape expectations for how price pressures flow through to household spending categories.

Core PCE excludes more volatile components and is widely followed as a gauge of underlying inflation trends. The report said the August PCE release is scheduled for September 30, while the Federal Open Market Committee meeting is set for September 15-16, with the rate decision due at 2 p.m. Eastern Time on September 16.

Different sources describe the matter differently, and the relevant details still require official confirmation.

Before that meeting, traders are expected to focus on the remaining inflation and labor-market inputs available to policymakers, including August CPI, PPI and employment indicators, as well as any public comments from Federal Reserve officials. The current story is still about shifting expectations rather than an official inflation release or a policy decision.

Why It Matters

Rising bank forecasts for core PCE matter because they affect the macro backdrop for crypto and other risk assets through interest-rate expectations, dollar liquidity and broader risk appetite. Even without an official data release yet, higher projected inflation can reshape how markets interpret each incoming U.S. data point.

The story also highlights the sequencing problem facing markets: the Fed may need to communicate policy before the official PCE reading arrives. That keeps attention on substitute indicators such as CPI and PPI, which can amplify volatility across macro-sensitive markets when investors try to infer the likely direction of inflation and rates from incomplete information.