Bitcoin Faces American Employment and the Fed: Today's Key Events

Two statistics, two governors, and a bitcoin stuck at $84,000. Thirteen days after the first rate hike by the Fed since 2023, the American labor market is under scrutiny ahead of Wednesday's PCE inflation and Friday's employment report.

The JOLTS job openings and consumer confidence will be released simultaneously at 4 PM. Michael Barr will then discuss the economy from Detroit, and Christopher Waller will close the evening on payments in front of bankers gathered in Miami. Key points of this article:

• The American labor market has been closely watched ahead of the PCE inflation and the employment report, with JOLTS job openings and consumer confidence expected simultaneously.
• The interventions of Fed governors, Michael Barr in Detroit and Christopher Waller in Miami, marked the day, focusing on the economy and payments, respectively.

JOLTS and Household Confidence: A Double Test for American Employment

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its August JOLTS survey at 10 AM Washington time, which is 4 PM in Paris, as announced in its press release on September 1. In July, job openings remained stable at 7.3 million. The resignation rate peaked at 1.9%, and layoffs hovered around 1.7 million. The consensus relayed by Markets Today expects 7.225 million job vacancies, just 46,000 fewer.

At the same time, the Conference Board will unveil its consumer confidence index for September. It had declined to 89.4 in August, its lowest since January, according to investingLive. Its expectations component fell to 68.2, well below the 80 threshold that the institute associates with a recession risk. Analysts are betting on 90 this month.

Strong job openings and less gloomy households would support those calling for another hike in October. A simultaneous drop in both indicators would, on the contrary, provide ammunition for proponents of a pause, just two days before the PCE.

Michael Barr, the Fed Hawk Expected in Detroit

The governor will speak at 12:40 PM Eastern time, which is 6:40 PM in Paris. He will participate in a conversation about the state of the economy organized in Detroit, according to the Fed's official schedule. Barr votes at the FOMC.

His last speech on September 23 focused on housing. It was back on September 1 that he provided his view on rates. On that day, he warned that the central bank needed to act decisively if inflation did not slow enough, CNBC reported. He described inflation above target for more than five years and service prices outside housing still tight.

Two weeks later, the Fed raised its rates by 25 basis points, to a range of 3.75% to 4%. Futures markets are already pricing in two more hikes by December, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. A Barr who deems the work unfinished would reinforce this scenario.

Christopher Waller Discusses Payments and Stablecoins at Sibos

The governor will speak at 3 PM Miami time, which is 9 PM in Paris, on the topic of payments. The Fed plans a live broadcast from the Sibos conference, the major annual meeting of the Swift network, which brings together over 10,000 finance professionals at the Miami Beach Convention Center until October 1.

Stablecoins occupy a significant part of the agenda. Circle will present its Arc blockchain, which went live on September 16, and is courting banks for USDC, according to Crypto Briefing. Waller has already defended their utility for retail payments and international transfers, as noted by the Journal du Coin.

Regarding rates, his last position dates back to September 3. He conditioned his vote on August inflation and considered a hike if prices accelerated, according to the text published by the Fed. Tonight's speech does not address monetary policy. However, a sentence about rates slipped in front of the audience would weigh more heavily than anything else during the session on Wall Street.

Michelle Bowman also shares, at 5 PM Paris time, a short pre-recorded video for a Fed workshop on cybersecurity for small banks. The PCE index follows on Wednesday at 2:30 PM, and the employment report on Friday, with 98,000 job creations expected. In the meantime, the 10-year American rate remains above 5%, a level not seen since 2007.

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