Dollar: Testing the $1,500 Ceiling Amid the End of BCRA's Buying Streak and Lelink Expirations

From the city it was noted that this week, in the currency market, there was a very clear signal: the Central Bank (BCRA) does not want the official wholesale dollar to exceed $1,500. What happened was that, while the strong expirations of Lelink accelerated, the Central decided to break its buying streak of foreign currency and began selling bonds in the secondary market. A change in strategy that, they warn, is not without consequences.

"While the final A3500 of the July Lelink was being set, this Tuesday the Central gave the clearest signal that it does not want the dollar to rise above $1,500: it cut a buying streak of 135 rounds in the spot while accelerating Lelink sales," warned the consultancy 1816, which also indicated that "this is a strong message, regardless of the fact that on Wednesday it returned to buying to reach $2 billion in the month".

This is how they described Tuesday's round from IEB: "The absence of purchases responded to the buying pressure for dollars due to the fixing of D31L6. In fact, during the round, a wall was seen at $1,500, suggesting sales from the Treasury or another public entity. A signal that would indicate the value of the dollar that, for now, satisfies the economic team."

As the BCRA does not want the reference exchange rate for Lelink to be too high, it went out to sell bonds in the secondary market to absorb pesos and offer investors a hedge against a potential devaluation without parting with reserves. However, the cost of this strategy is that it accumulates future debt commitments that become more burdensome and difficult to refinance if the official dollar rises.

"It is no coincidence that Tuesday was the day the Central stopped buying foreign currency: the last two months have seen the highest expirations of dollar-linked securities this year, and it is likely that on August 26 even more nominal Lelink will be set: there are $4.439 billion in expirations of D31G6 in circulation, and at least $2.192 billion should be exchanged during the next month so that fewer Lelink expire at the end of August than those that amortize today," they detailed.

As a result of months of Lelink sales by the Central in the secondary market and the rollover in exchanges and Treasury auctions, they estimated that, including the new dual bonds, there are now around $12 billion in letters and bonds tied to the dollar in private hands, following the liquidation of Wednesday's auction. Of that total, about $6.6 billion mature during the current presidential term.

From Grupo SBS, they also highlighted this fact as one of the most important of the week in currency matters. "Regarding reserves and the dynamics of the BCRA's balance in the MULC, this week had the particularity that the monetary authority cut the streak of 135 consecutive rounds with a buying balance in the MULC, which began on January 2 and is one of the longest on record."

Still, they emphasized that the 'movie' of the year and the month remains positive: the accumulated total for 2026 amounts to $13.291 billion, while the balance for July stands at $2.117 billion, above the previous month. Additionally, the daily average of purchases for the month, at $106 million, exceeds both June's ($68 million per day) and the average for all of 2026 ($96 million daily).

That said, the cut in the streak occurred in a currency context that "merits monitoring", they emphasized, as the wholesale dollar marked a new nominal high for the week ($1,499.84 on Tuesday), while the CCL reached as high as $1,600 intraday. In this context, the exchange gap between the wholesale dollar and the CCL stood around 5.2%, although it reached 6.5% during the week and then receded after the Treasury auction.

The conclusion they arrive at is that "all of this continues to indicate that, despite the absence of concrete episodes of exchange tension like those experienced in the electoral cycle of 2025 or during the previous government, the sources of dollarization demand exist and will gain strength as we move into the electoral cycle of 2027, following the 'rule' that Argentina has shown in recent electoral years".

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