Global Cryptocurrency Market Capitalization Decreased by Nearly a Third Over the Year

The capitalization of the global cryptocurrency market decreased from $4.15 trillion to $2.75 trillion over the past 12 months, while investments in crypto assets were significantly weaker on average compared to investments in gold and stocks. Amid falling prices, the Russian Central Bank is preparing further market regulation, forming registries of trusted participants, and anticipating the emergence of new laws on cryptocurrency investments.

According to estimates from the Gaidar Institute, cryptocurrencies overall have brought losses to investors over the past year. Bitcoin, for example, has decreased by 27% compared to October of last year. There were some exceptions in the market: certain digital assets showed high returns. However, they did not change the overall picture: the total value of the global crypto market has significantly declined.

Why Cryptocurrencies Have Lost Value

Experts link the decline in prices to several factors. Among them are heightened inflation expectations, decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and more expensive borrowing costs. High interest rates in the U.S. increased the cost of financing and put pressure on risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, note Andrey Zubarev and Gennady Shcherbakov from the Gaidar Institute.

An additional negative signal for the market was the situation surrounding the American bill, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, known as the Clarity Act. The U.S. Senate blocked this key regulatory project for the cryptocurrency sector.

A separate episode of Bitcoin's decline in recent months was linked to the actions of Strategy, the largest public holder of this cryptocurrency. In early June, the company sold Bitcoin worth $2.5 million to pay dividends on preferred shares. The amount of the transaction was small, but the market reacted painfully: prior to this, Strategy had been steadily increasing its Bitcoin reserves for years without reducing them.

Europe Tightens Rules for Crypto Exchanges

In the European Union, the transitional period for regulating MiCA - Markets in Crypto-Assets - ended in July 2026. The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) warned that exchanges without a license must cease servicing clients from the EU, giving them the opportunity to withdraw their funds beforehand.

By the established deadline, Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, had not received the necessary authorization. After the new rules were implemented, European platforms began to scrutinize the origins of transfers more strictly. Analytical services track the movement of coins in the public blockchain and label addresses associated with sanctions.

How Cryptocurrency Rules Are Changing in Russia

In Russia, a federal law "On Digital Currencies and Digital Rights" came into effect on September 1. It provides for the purchase and storage of cryptocurrencies through regulated intermediaries, including crypto exchanges and digital depositories. However, the adoption of the law and the actual launch of infrastructure are different stages: as of September 21, there were still no digital depositories and cryptocurrency exchanges open to clients in the country.

Nevertheless, state banks and regulators are already testing the operation of new mechanisms. VTB reported its first transactions with digital currency for clients - legal entities with settlements through a digital depository. The bank is included in the registry of digital depositories of the Bank of Russia, and on October 6, it conducted a pilot operation in the Russian infrastructure. According to VTB, the test confirmed the readiness of systems and processes for trading, accounting, and storing digital assets before launching the service for a broader range of clients.

VTB's depository head, Olga Kim, reported that settlements were made through digital accounts of the digital depository created based on VTB's depository, and access to the blockchain was organized through a higher-level digital depository. For the market, such operations demonstrate how a scheme with intermediaries from the Central Bank's registry can work in practice.

The Central Bank is Forming Registries and Preparing Licensing

The Bank of Russia has announced the inclusion of the first five organizations in the registry of digital depositories. Four more organizations have been added to the registry of participants conducting digital currency exchanges. In this model, crypto exchanges can buy and sell digital currencies in their own name and at their own expense outside organized trading.

After being included in the registries, companies are required to comply with the rules for conducting and accounting for transactions with digital currencies and digital rights. By September 1, 2027, they must align their activities with the requirements of legislation on digital currencies and digital rights.

Market participants note that the Central Bank is effectively closing the possibility of anonymous crypto transfers within the regulated infrastructure. Digital depositories must reject transactions if they do not have complete information about the sender and recipient. In the absence of such information, funds are not credited, and the operation is blocked. For transfers up to 60,000 rubles, a basic set of data is sufficient, while larger amounts require an extended package, including tax identification numbers and dates of birth.

First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank, Vladimir Chistyukhin, stated that the regulator expects legislation describing the entire framework for investments in cryptocurrencies to be adopted by 2026. According to him, preliminary discussions have taken enough time, and now it is necessary to reach a final consensus and move on to the next stage.

"We would very much like the legislation that describes all investments in cryptocurrencies to be adopted in 2026. At the same time, licensing processes should begin so that by the end of 2026, perhaps the first companies with the appropriate licenses would appear," said Vladimir Chistyukhin.

The Central Bank's position is that transactions with crypto assets should go through financial intermediaries that have obtained special licenses. Within such a system, various models are possible: there should be room for brokers, accounting infrastructure, and analogs of crypto exchanges.

Chistyukhin also noted that after 2026, market participants should be given at least a year to prepare and "whiten" structures that are currently working with crypto assets. Then, in 2027, amendments to law enforcement legislation, the Administrative Code, and the Criminal Code establishing liability for illegal circulation of crypto assets should come into effect.