Next week's macro outlook: Waller's "debut" is approaching, and the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision

Next week, the market focus will be on the interest rate decisions of several major central banks, including the Federal Reserve. Since taking office as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, Waller has remained silent, and the press conference following the June interest rate decision will be a key validation of his monetary policy stance. The market also expects him to send clear signals regarding communication mechanism reforms. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are in Beijing time):

Monday 15:15, European Central Bank President Lagarde will deliver a speech;

Tuesday TBD, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision; 14:30, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi will hold a monetary policy press conference;

Tuesday 20:15, U.S. ADP employment change for the week ending May 30;

Thursday 2:00, the Federal Reserve FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic projections summary; 2:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Waller will hold a monetary policy press conference;

Thursday 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13, U.S. June Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

In terms of policy signals, the market is focused on whether three hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve will materialize: first, whether the wording "the next step is likely to be a rate cut" will be removed from the original policy statement. If this wording is removed, it means the Federal Reserve officially ends its previous easing bias and shifts to a policy tone centered on combating inflation. Second, changes in the dot plot; the March dot plot indicated one more rate cut within the year, but this dot plot is likely to shift to show stable rates, and there may even be a situation where a majority of officials expect rate hikes. Finally, there is a tilt in risk preference. If officials' concerns about inflation significantly increase and worries about the labor market diminish, it may pave the way for subsequent rate hikes.

On Friday (June 19), due to the Juneteenth holiday, the New York Stock Exchange will be closed for one day. Trading in precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, stock index, and U.S. Treasury futures contracts on the CME will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 20th, and trading in Brent crude oil futures contracts on the Intercontinental Exchange will end early at 01:30 Beijing time on the 20th.