Probability of Bitcoin Rising to $100,000 Before Christmas Drops to 9.7%

By: www.bloomberg.com|10/15/2026 16:19:37

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with analysts remaining bullish, but speculative markets shifting towards defense, putting pressure on risk appetite. Bitcoin briefly fell below $80,000 for the first time in nearly a month. The sell-off in the U.S. stock market's AI sector has weighed on risk assets, further dampening bullish sentiment in the crypto market. Jeff Anderson, head of STS Digital in the U.S., stated that inflation data will severely impact risk appetite, and the market is entering a quiet period ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting, with interest rate expectations still uncertain. Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz, pointed out that in the past 24 hours, the market has priced the probability of Bitcoin rising to $100,000 before Christmas down by 2.8 percentage points to 9.7%; long-term bullish bets are quickly retreating, while short-term hedging demand is surging, as institutions reassess macro risk exposure amid the renewed uncertainty over interest rate prospects.

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