Wintermute: Bitcoin's Rise Reflects a 'Relief Rally' Rather Than the Start of a New Bull Market
On July 7, Wintermute released a market analysis stating that the latest U.S. non-farm payroll data significantly fell short of market expectations, coupled with comments from Waller interpreted as dovish, which propelled a broad rebound in global risk assets, with the cryptocurrency market showing the most notable performance. Bitcoin and Ethereum have recently outperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices significantly. The current rise in Bitcoin is underpinned by solid fundamentals, primarily driven by continued accumulation by whales, a shift in options funding towards call options, and improvements in on-chain data. Additionally, the end of net outflows for Bitcoin spot ETFs has provided a boost to market sentiment.
The cooling U.S. labor market has led the market to further reduce interest rate hike expectations for the year, while Waller reiterated the 2% inflation target at the Sintra Forum without signaling a more hawkish stance, which investors interpreted as a shift towards a more dovish Federal Reserve policy. In the cryptocurrency market, on-chain data for Bitcoin shows that whale wallets have accumulated over 270,000 BTC near the 200-week moving average, while funds in the options market have shifted from hedging positions to call options with strike prices between $60,000 and $70,000. Meanwhile, Ethereum's rise has been more driven by institutional narratives, including the official launch of Ethereum Institutional and the ongoing development of institutional tokenization infrastructure. However, the recent layoffs of about 20% at the Ethereum Foundation and a 40% budget cut, along with previous outflows from ETH ETFs, still reflect some pressure on its fundamentals.
This round of increases aligns more with the characteristics of a "relief rally" rather than the beginning of a new long-term bull market. Improvements in the macro environment, easing tensions in the Middle East, continued institutional positioning in Ethereum, and low liquidity during the summer have collectively driven market recovery. However, from a funding perspective, the cumulative outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs this year still amounts to approximately $2.73 billion. Until ETF funding continues to improve and establishes a trend, the market should view the current situation as a sentiment recovery rather than a structural reversal, maintaining a cautious outlook for the future.
Disclaimer: This content is provided for general branding and informational purposes only and doesn't constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Any events, rewards, online events, or related information mentioned herein should not be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or invitation to purchase, sell, trade, or otherwise deal in any crypto assets or to use any services. Crypto assets are highly volatile and may result in loss. WEEX services and online events may not be available in all regions and are subject to applicable laws, regulations, and eligibility requirements. You are responsible for ensuring that your use of WEEX services complies with local laws and for carefully assessing the risks before participating in any crypto-related activities.
You may also like

Nvidia and Japan Seal Alliance for Industrial Physical AI

English Court Considers Whether Debt Can Be Paid in Bitcoin

Moonshot and the DeepSeek 2 Moment: What Changes in the AI Race

You Won't Understand What's Happening with Cryptocurrencies Unless You Look at the USA!

Van Rossem Hard Fork Activated on Cardano Network; Is It Time for ADA Price Surge?

Lyn Alden on the Bitcoin Fashion Debate: It's Not in My Top 10 Important Issues

Hyperliquid vs dYdX Whitepaper Comparison (2026): Which Perpetual DEX Has the Better Vision?

"I made a mistake": Warren Buffett finally buys Google and explains why

Vale's CPI: Why Congress is Targeting Government Interference

USDT Holds Steady, USDS Plummets, the Stablecoin Market Changes Face

AI Shakes Online Trust: ZK Verification Emerges as a Solution

AZ-COM Maruwa puts ¥1B behind JPYC in major stablecoin push

Japan logistics giant plans JPYC payments for 2,300 partners

Activation of Solana (SOL) Trading and Stable Technical Support

UnitedHealth Surprises Wall Street and Signals Turnaround

Wall Street Eyes Korean Stocks: KOSPI's Price-to-Earnings Ratio Hits 20-Year Low, Goldman Sachs Maintains 12,000 Point Target for Buying on Dips

Kaspersky GReAT Unveils OkoBot Malware Framework: Specifically Designed to Steal Cryptocurrency Wallet Mnemonics, Browser Cookies, and More

Circle president backs USDC as new rival pressures CRCL stock

Spreadefi: A closer look at whether it is a scam or not

2026 World Cup: Predictive Markets Record $5.57 Billion in Trades Before the Final

Crypto: Fake Police Steal Over $5 Million in the UK

SpaceX Has Lost Over $1 Trillion in Market Value Since Peak Prices

Michael Saylor warns BIP 110 could threaten Bitcoin’s neutrality

FTX sets $900M creditor payout as SBF clemency push loses support

Coinbase lost touch with crypto-native users, Cobie admits

Bitcoin: Is creator Satoshi Nakamoto still alive? Adam Back responds

Crypto Market Drops 36% While Apps Generate $5.9 Billion

South Korea Plans to Introduce AI-Based Virtual Asset Regulatory System, Reports Over 30 Crypto Cases in Two Years to Combat Market Manipulation

2026 Altseason Guide: Current Values and Market Signal Analysis, Is It Time to Embrace Altseason?













