This Week's Highlights: AI Resurgence, Fed's Hawkish Stance Shakes Markets, US-Iran Tensions Escalate

On August 29, global markets experienced a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Federal Reserve Chairman Waller signaled a hawkish stance at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, stating that there has not been a "meaningful improvement" in the underlying trends of U.S. inflation. He emphasized that if core inflation does not decline sufficiently towards 2%, the Fed "still has work to do." Following his remarks, market expectations for a rate hike in September significantly increased, with the U.S. dollar index rising 0.85% this week. Gold fell over 3% in a single day and accumulated a weekly decline of 3.24%, while spot silver dropped 3.82% for the week.

In terms of geopolitical developments, the prospects for U.S.-Iran negotiations remain uncertain. The U.S. has initiated an "economic orphan action" against Iran and expanded the scope of sanctions. Iran is coordinating with Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with plans to establish temporary shipping lanes and conduct joint mine-clearing operations. However, the full reopening of the strait depends on conditions set by Iran, including the lifting of U.S. blockades and sanctions, the unfreezing of Iranian funds, and the cessation of Israeli hostilities in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Trump announced that the U.S. has gained "majority control" over Venezuela's oil reserves, estimated at over 65 billion barrels, while the crude oil market is trading on expectations of a recovery in Middle Eastern supply, leading to a notable decline in oil prices this week.

AI trading has once again gained momentum this week. A strong earnings report was released, showing second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 106%, with data center revenue at $89 billion, up 117% year-on-year. The company expects third-quarter revenue to reach $108 billion. The earnings report spurred an 8.7% increase in stock price in a single day, with market capitalization soaring by approximately $442 billion, equivalent to about 300 billion yuan. The company also disclosed progress on its self-developed inference chip, Jalapeño, and plans to deploy it by the end of 2026 while continuing to increase investments in AI infrastructure.

On the macro policy front, the U.S. Treasury's expansion of its long-term Treasury bond repurchase program has sparked discussions about "fiscal dominance" and the independence of the Federal Reserve. Japan has cumulatively intervened in the foreign exchange market with 15.4 trillion yen, setting a historical record for a single month. Domestically, multiple departments have simultaneously launched real estate policies, extending the maximum term for personal housing loans from 30 years to 40 years, and policies supporting new models for real estate development in the capital market have also been implemented.

Market focus also includes the allocation of approximately 80 billion Hong Kong dollars for AI infrastructure and model development, with management continuously increasing their holdings of company stock. The company is set to release new Mac products featuring the first 2-nanometer M6 chip and will hold a fall launch event on September 9, where the first foldable iPhone may be unveiled.

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