Tom Lee: The bear market for tech giants is over, but other sectors may face a "rolling bear market."

Fundstrat's research director Tom Lee stated that although the "Tech Seven" have emerged from the downturn, the overall market risks have not been alleviated, and other sectors may gradually enter a "rolling bear market" later in 2026.

He believes that the demand for AI remains strong, which will support the major indices in maintaining resilience by the end of the year, but internal market differentiation will intensify. In an interview with CNBC, he said, "The bear market for the Tech Seven and the software sector has ended," but emphasized that this does not represent the overall market.

Lee pointed out three potential disruptive factors: fluctuations in the midterm election cycle, selling pressure after the lock-up period for tech company IPOs expires, and tight energy supply. Among these, he views energy as the most direct risk, warning that "the moment of reckoning is approaching: there is a shortage of oil product inventories that cannot be alleviated in the short term," and companies reliant on energy will be under pressure.

He remains optimistic about the core support of the U.S. economy—energy independence and improved AI productivity—advising investors to focus on areas with strong earnings certainty, stating that "the companies that truly strengthen are those that control scarce resources." He mentioned that the semiconductor sector has shown signs of overheating, but in the short term, capital momentum still leans towards AI suppliers and tech leaders, while other industries may gradually enter an adjustment phase.

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