What are the four main reasons behind the stable period of Robinhood Chain's retreat?

Original | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )

Author | Wenser ( @wenser2010 )

On September 30, the HOOD Summit 2026 concluded in Houston, Texas, marking the official launch of the largest trading product update in Robinhood's history. Meanwhile, the Robinhood Chain Meme craze, which had been gaining momentum for the past three months, has quietly cooled down, with on-chain trading volume and fee income both declining.

Since its launch in July, Robinhood Chain gained immense popularity with its "RWA + Meme coin" dual asset model and "coin-stock paired Meme coins" gameplay, with single-chain daily fees peaking at around $8 million. However, as September progressed, the number of Meme coin projects, DEX trading volume, and fee income all experienced varying degrees of decline. A closer look at the reasons behind this may reveal issues such as frequent rug pulls, restrictions on coin-stock memes, a lack of innovative gameplay, and limitations in converting the incremental market.

Key Data in the Debate on Robinhood Chain's Retreat: Fees, Income, TVL, Stablecoin Market Cap

Previously, the heated debate over whether Robinhood Chain is retreating mainly stemmed from industry data and some representative figures.

On one hand, there has indeed been a significant drop in Robinhood Chain's single-chain fees and income: According to DefiLlama data, on September 4, the chain's fees (Note: total fees paid by users) reached around $6 million; income (Note: actual income from the single chain) peaked at $5.44 million, a historical high, and then fell sharply. By September 30, the corresponding figures had dropped to about $97,000 and $86,000, respectively, with the average income over the past seven days falling to around $100,000.

On the other hand, the official subsidy policy is still in effect: On September 29, Robinhood Crypto announced that Robinhood Wallet users could waive gas fees for swap transactions exceeding $0.50 on Robinhood Chain, a benefit that will last until December 31, 2026. The original three-month period has been directly extended to six months, indicating that Robinhood Chain's officials recognize the importance of reducing trading friction costs.

Based on the above information, two viewpoints have gradually emerged regarding whether Robinhood Chain's market is retreating:

One viewpoint is the fundamentalist perspective. Figures like Uniswap founder Hayden Adams and Dragonfly partner Haseeb Qureshi represent this camp. The former previously stated, "It is quite ridiculous for community users to claim that Robinhood Chain is dead based solely on fee income charts; in reality, Robinhood has merely raised the gas limit and lowered user fees to expand on-chain capacity and meet the enormous demand for block space." The latter expressed bullish sentiment on Robinhood Chain in a post on September 15, believing that while on-chain income has significantly decreased after raising the gas limit and lowering user fees, DEX trading volume remains strong, with its data only second to Solana at that time. He views this adjustment as a deliberate strategy by Robinhood.

However, with the ongoing decline in on-chain data, both viewpoints now seem to be losing credibility.

The other viewpoint is represented by the "Meme coins are unsustainable" camp, led by DeFi researcher Ignas. He pointed out as early as September 9 that "the narratives of on-chain stocks and Meme coins, including Robinhood Chain, essentially rely on trading volume and transaction fees; if trading volume dries up, rewards and buybacks will also disappear, leading to weakened holding incentives and ultimately resulting in sell-offs." On September 22, he reiterated that "the popularity of Robinhood's Meme coins and tokenized stocks is waning, with the TVL of tokenized stocks remaining flat for two consecutive weeks, and the number of stocks destroyed exceeding the issuance volume." He further noted, Meme coins belong to "one-cycle trading"; investors can trade them but should not hold them long-term. Clearly, Ignas has recognized the essence of Robinhood Chain's heavy reliance on the Meme coin narrative to maintain ecological heat and trading volume, thus indicating that its on-chain market has indeed begun to retreat.

Aside from income-side data, other metrics of Robinhood Chain can also serve as reference.

Since reaching around $900 million in TVL on September 6, Robinhood Chain's on-chain TVL has remained around $1 billion for nearly a month; however, its bridged TVL has slightly decreased from about $3.4 billion to around $3 billion as of October 2.

The market cap of on-chain stablecoins has similarly followed this trend. After first surpassing $1 billion on September 8, this figure remained just above $1 billion as of October 2, and unless there are other increments in the short term, it may continue to hover around this number, making large-scale growth unlikely.

In terms of net inflow of funds, Robinhood Chain recorded historical peaks of approximately $190 million and $213 million on July 24 and August 30, respectively. However, from August 31 to September 7, this figure experienced eight consecutive days of negative values, with a cumulative outflow of around $470 million, nearly reversing the previous inflow. Although this data has shown an overall upward trend since September 8, its scale has dropped by about 80% compared to the peak.

In summary, after the initial three months of the mainnet launch, the Meme coin market and the market cap growth of stock tokens on Robinhood Chain have both significantly slowed down, and the entire on-chain ecosystem has transitioned from a rapid growth phase to a gradual development phase. This is also indirectly confirmed by the data on active addresses on-chain.

According to growthepie data, the number of active addresses on Robinhood Chain peaked at 5.18 million on August 12 and has since gradually declined; currently, this figure has dropped to around 354,000, with a 24-hour decline of 11% and a 30-day decline of about 15%. Therefore, although the daily trading volume of Robinhood Chain remains around $1.5 billion from the perspective of DEX trading volume, when combined with the gradually declining transaction count data, this likely indicates that the number of addresses engaging in large-volume trades remains active, but genuine small traders have already exited.

Having discussed the phenomena, let’s delve into the reasons.

Behind the First Wave of Robinhood Chain's Heat: Prevalence of Rug Pulls, Coin-Stock Meme Burnout, Restrictions on Stock Tokens, and Limitations in Incremental Market Conversion

To discuss the recent heat of Robinhood Chain, one could say it is a case of "success and failure both stemming from Meme coins." While benefiting from the trading volume, fee, and income surge driven by the Meme coin craze, it is also difficult to escape the short cycles, rug pulls, and fleeting trends associated with Meme coins. Additionally, there is room for optimization in the gameplay of coin-stock memes, the number of stock tokens, and subsequent asset planning, as well as in the conversion of the incremental market.

Prevalence of Rug Pulls: On-chain Token Issuance Groups Exploiting and Repeatedly Harvesting

Previously, we exposed a certain on-chain token issuance group on Robinhood Chain in the article "Robinhood On-chain Token Issuance Group Exposed: Manipulating 53 Projects in 2 Months, Earning Over $18 Million." This group harvested over $18 million in just two months through methods such as fund linking, repeatedly harvesting fake and real tokens, and chip sniping. This is just what was found through investigation; the actual scale is far beyond this. This phenomenon is not unique to Robinhood Chain.

On September 28, a certain security team reported that a high-risk Meme coin fraud factory was discovered on Robinhood Chain, with approximately 3,589.14 ETH in two-way flow over the past 30 days, equivalent to about $9.49 million, involving hundreds of fraudulent Meme coins.

As a new L2 chain, these on-chain token issuance groups are well-versed in rug pulls, and the hot market for Meme coins is, in some respects, attributable to the contributions of these "serial entrepreneurs." However, short-term boosts also mean long-term ecological losses; as more and more people are harvested by rug pulls, they can only exit at a loss, leading to the phenomenon of "unchanged trading volume but retreating market."

Coin-Stock Meme Burnout: Trading Volume of Head Launchpad Platform Coin-Stock Paired Assets Stays Below $1 Billion

According to Dune data, although the number of coin-stock paired Meme coins on the top nine Launchpad platforms of Robinhood Chain has risen to over 800,000, their overall trading volume remains around $600 million, with Long.xyz platform RWA asset traders accounting for about 70% of the total user base, approximately 4,000 coin-stock paired Meme coins, and around 64,000 traders; Pons platform RWA asset traders account for only about 5% of the total user base.

Restrictions on Stock Tokens: Over 200 Types of Assets on Robinhood Chain, but SEC Tightens Asset Issuance Window with Innovative Exemption Policy

Previously, the U.S. SEC introduced an innovative exemption policy that detailed that stock token assets must be issued by the issuer's permission before third parties can issue them, which has somewhat impacted the legitimacy of stock token assets on Robinhood Chain. Although Robinhood's crypto head Johann Kerbrat stated that "for stock token products, Robinhood will actually purchase the corresponding company's stocks and hold them," and Robinhood CEO Vlad previously revealed plans to increase the number of related stock token assets to thousands, it still faces certain constraints in the short term.

Limitations in Incremental Market Conversion: Robinhood Users Struggle to Become Robinhood Chain Users

At the launch of Robinhood Chain, aside from innovative gameplay for issuing RWA assets like stock tokens, what was even more anticipated was that the tens of millions of users on its brokerage platform and crypto app could become new users in the on-chain market. However, currently, the conversion efficiency of this user group is not satisfactory. Previously, CashCat experienced a short-term surge in market value after launching on Robinhood, but also could not escape the fate of Meme coin declines, fully illustrating that users related to Robinhood's brokerage platform and crypto app have not converted into Robinhood Chain's Meme coin traders.

Conclusion: The First Wave of the Tide Retreats, Robinhood Chain Enters the Second Phase

Originally hoping that RWA assets would drive the development of the on-chain ecosystem, Robinhood Chain instead became "the most eye-catching player in the crypto market" through Meme coins, but it also cannot escape the impacts of Meme coins' short cycles and rapid declines, with the overall ecosystem gradually entering a stable development phase.

The next wave of excitement may require Robinhood Chain to bridge the liquidity gap between its brokerage platform and crypto app, allowing more traditional market traders to become on-chain asset traders, thereby unlocking greater imaginative space and helping Robinhood Chain's ecosystem and its stock price to reach new heights.

This content is provided for general informational purposes only and doesn't constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Any events, rewards, online promotions, or related information mentioned herein should not be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or invitation to purchase, sell, trade, or otherwise deal in any crypto assets. Crypto assets are highly volatile and may result in loss. The availability of WEEX services, products, and related events may vary by region. You are responsible for ensuring that your participation is in accordance with applicable local laws and regulations.