Binance Research: Gold and Bitcoin decline simultaneously, confirming a broad de-risking process

According to a post by Binance Research, the escalation of geopolitical conflicts combined with a hawkish Federal Reserve has led to a global market experiencing oil-driven stagflation shocks, including: oil prices soaring: Brent crude up 7%, WTI crude up 4.2%; stock markets broadly declining: S&P 500 down 1.45%, Nasdaq down 1.25%, Russell 2000 down 1.64%; metals under pressure: gold down 3.6%, silver down 4.9%; dollar and U.S. Treasuries: the dollar index up 0.76%, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising by 6.5 basis points, VIX fear index soaring 17% to 25; cryptocurrency market: btc-42">Bitcoin down 4.6%, Ethereum down 5.2%.

In terms of macro and Middle East dynamics, Iran has threatened to strike Gulf energy facilities following an Israeli attack on its largest gas field; Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City confirmed missile damage. Oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz remains 98% lower than pre-conflict levels. The Pentagon has requested the White House to approve over $200 billion in special funding for the war against Iran; the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged, still expecting one rate cut within the year, but PPI data exceeded expectations (month-on-month 0.7%, expected 0.3%).

France has expressed willingness to assist in ensuring the safety of the Strait of Hormuz after the intense phase of the conflict, while most European countries have refused to join U.S.-led actions. The market is experiencing a classic oil-driven stagflation shock, with the U.S. and Israel's first direct strike on Iranian upstream energy assets, combined with attacks on Qatari facilities and disruptions in Hormuz shipping, creating positive feedback between energy shocks, unexpected PPI, and a hawkish Federal Reserve, driving the dollar higher and yields up, with risk aversion spreading to all assets. About 45% of S&P 500 constituents have entered a buyback blackout period, further weakening technical support. Gold and Bitcoin have fallen in sync, confirming a broad risk-off process.

The market is concerned that a continued blockade of Hormuz (over 1 month) could push Brent crude to $150, exacerbating recession or stagflation risks. Recent attention should focus on the final date of Trump's visit to China, progress on market structure legislation, the IEA releasing 400 million barrels of oil reserves (prioritizing Asia and Oceania), and daily tracking of shipping data through the Strait of Hormuz (still at single-digit levels).