Binance Research: The market's concerns about AI disrupting software may be overstated, Bitcoin is approaching a structural bottom
According to the latest weekly report from Binance Research, the U.S. Supreme Court's tariff ruling initially increased uncertainty, but quantitative analysis suggests that the direct impact may be quite limited, and the market may have exaggerated the downside risks of inflation and economic fundamentals.
Concerns about AI disrupting software may be overstated. Once software stocks form a durable bottom, the mechanical correlation between tech stocks and Bitcoin will fade. This week's Nvidia earnings report and updates on the Anthropic corporate partnership may be early signals in this direction.
Currently, Bitcoin is experiencing the longest and most significant divergence from global M2 money supply in history, stemming from three major structural distortions: a weak dollar mechanically inflates the nominal value of M2 through exchange rate conversion; the approval of spot ETFs has led institutions to classify Bitcoin alongside software stocks as part of the same high-volatility tech factor; and high real interest rates have made money market funds a competitive alternative to risk assets.
The convergence of this divergence requires three conditions to be met: stabilization of tech stocks, a decline in real interest rates, and stability of the dollar, which may be achieved between the second half of 2026 and early 2027.
Multiple technical indicators point to the market being close to a structural bottom: the realized profit-loss ratio has fallen below 1 for the first time since 2023, leverage has risen to November highs, and defensive positions in options have reached the most extreme levels since the FTX collapse.
Fourth-quarter 13F holdings data shows that price-sensitive capital (investment advisors, banks, hedge funds) has net sold about 34,000 BTC, while long-term institutional capital (governments, holding companies, private equity) continues to accumulate.
You may also like

Morning News | Hyperliquid launches off-chain event prediction market contracts; Strategy completes $1.5 billion debt buyback; Kelp DAO announces rsETH has fully recovered

Bankless Founder: Why I Sold All My ETH

Senior Public Company Financial Audit: Taking Hashkey as an Example, Discussing Which Account to Include for Exchange Issued Platform Tokens?

How did Micron win a trillion-dollar market value while Samsung relies on technology cycles and Hynix relies on HBM?

Dialogue with AEON co-founder Leo: The real bottleneck of the Agentic Economy is not the model, but the settlement

2 years, 225 times the return? Unveiling the mysterious researcher Serenity's AI "bottleneck" investment technique

B.AI partners with BNB Chain to launch the "Billion AI Token Subsidy" celebration, fully igniting the on-chain intelligent agent ecosystem

The trillion-dollar frenzy of selling memory, profits from buying memory are halved

Who can make money in the era of Agents?

From brokerages to banks, Hong Kong intensifies efforts to clean up cross-border investment account openings

DeFi has reached its most dangerous moment: the real vulnerabilities are not in the code

Morning Report | Binance launches DYOR research tool; YZi Labs launches recruitment platform YZi Talent; Vitalik states that the Ethereum Foundation will "downsize" and reduce the amount of ETH sold

Insiders betting on Musk are reaping "historic returns."

Ten Thousand Characters Breakdown of On-Chain Vaults: Eight Major Tracks, Who is Rising and Who is Declining?

Behind NEAR's Doubling: 3 Major Trends Becoming the Engine of Coin Prices

Visa and Stripe are both working on stablecoins, but their focus is not on payments

How Traders Keep Profits When PEPE WLD and FET Start Moving Fast Again





