Bitcoin Could Reach $250,000 to $840,000 Within Five Years, River's Fund Flow Model Estimates

Increasing Bitcoin Investment Assumed

On the 3rd, River, a U.S. financial services company specializing in Bitcoin, presented a bullish analysis suggesting that the cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) could reach as high as $840,000 within five years.

Currently, it is noted that only about 4% of the global population owns Bitcoin, and the amount held by each individual is also minimal. Institutional investors, who manage 50% of the world's financial assets, are expected to begin significant allocations after the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) in the U.S. in 2024.

However, the allocation ratio of Bitcoin within the total assets managed by the investment advisory industry is only 0.008%. River states that this situation is beginning to change, and Bitcoin is increasingly recognized as a suitable asset to add a certain percentage to many investment portfolios.

It points out that 29 out of the top 30 registered investment advisory firms (RIAs) in the U.S. hold Bitcoin, and although the median allocation ratio is still low at 0.1%, it has been steadily increasing year by year.

Furthermore, major banks and Wall Street financial firms are also starting to develop Bitcoin-related products and recommend Bitcoin allocations to their clients.

Estimating Future Prices from Two Figures

River examined the impact of the expansion of Bitcoin holdings on its price by estimating two figures: "the amount of funds flowing into Bitcoin" and "the impact on market capitalization per dollar of inflow."

Citing a study by Bitwise, River noted that the percentage of investment advisors (on an individual basis) incorporating cryptocurrencies (mostly Bitcoin) into client portfolios in the U.S. rose from 22% in 2024 to 32% in 2025.

Additionally, it continued that 56% of investment advisors plan to incorporate Bitcoin or are considering it in 2025.

Based on this pace of increase, River assumes that not only the assets managed by investment advisory firms but also all asset portfolios, including those of investors who do not use advisors and investors outside the U.S., will incorporate 20% to 40% of Bitcoin into their portfolios over the next 3 to 5 years.

River also investigated the recommended allocation ratio of Bitcoin by financial institutions, estimating that the average incorporation ratio of Bitcoin in such portfolios will rise to 2% to 4% over time. Considering that the total global financial assets amount to approximately $333 trillion, it estimates that $1.3 trillion to $5.3 trillion in assets will flow into Bitcoin over the next 3 to 5 years.

River further analyzed the impact of fund inflows on price. It stated that if new funds flow into an asset and existing holders do not sell, the price will rise significantly more than the amount of inflow itself.

Looking at historical data for Bitcoin, it analyzed that for every dollar of net fund inflow, the increase in market value was $4.5 from 2015 to 2017, $3.3 from 2018 to 2021, and $3.1 from 2022 to 2025. For the next 3 to 5 years, it assumes that the market value of Bitcoin will increase by $3 for every dollar.

Applying this threefold multiplier, the inflow of $1.3 trillion to $5.3 trillion would mean that Bitcoin's market value could reach $5.5 trillion to $17.5 trillion. This corresponds to approximately $250,000 to $840,000 per Bitcoin.

However, River notes that this model is based on simple assumptions, and actual inflow amounts and prices may fall outside this range. It also highlights that there are many uncertainties affecting Bitcoin's future price, including technological advancements, geopolitical risks, and government fiscal conditions.

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