Fidelity: Correlation Between Bitcoin and U.S. Treasury Yields Rises Above 0.6

Fidelity Digital Assets analysis states that the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has recently risen to its highest level since Bitcoin's inception, with federal debt exceeding $40 trillion and interest payments becoming the second-largest expenditure in the federal budget. The correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. 10-year real interest rates has historically been low, but it has gradually turned positive in recent years, reaching above 0.6 in 2026, a record high. Over the past two months, Bitcoin has risen nearly 30%, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has increased by more than 10% during the same period. Fidelity believes that as government debt rises and financing costs increase, Bitcoin's fixed supply cap characteristics may enhance its appeal as a hedge against currency devaluation. The U.S. federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2026 is projected to rise to $1.99 trillion, the highest level since the pandemic, further expanding the fiscal deficit.

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