The "Invisible Winner" of the World Cup! Prediction Markets Attracting Billions, Betting Giants' Market Share Eroded

Author: Nancy, PANews

The 2026 World Cup in the US, Canada, and Mexico concluded with Spain defeating Argentina in overtime, lifting the trophy for the first time in 16 years. However, the impact of this global sporting event extends beyond the pitch. Off the field, prediction markets are emerging as the "invisible winner" of the World Cup.

During the World Cup, prediction markets attracted hundreds of billions of dollars in trading volume, significantly eroding the market share of traditional betting giants for the first time. At the same time, the competitive landscape within prediction markets is rapidly diversifying. Kalshi, leveraging regulatory advantages and capital support, has repeatedly broken trading records, further extending its lead, while Polymarket, despite achieving rapid expansion, still struggles with regulatory challenges and intensified competition.

World Cup Catalyzes Billions in Trading Flow into Prediction Markets

The World Cup has become a significant catalyst for bringing prediction markets into the mainstream. With hundreds of millions of users globally focused on match outcomes, trading predictions around team victories and championship titles have surged, drawing substantial funds and users into this emerging market.

According to Dune data, from June 11 to July 19, 2026, during the World Cup, the cumulative nominal trading volume in prediction markets reached hundreds of billions of dollars. In June alone, the nominal trading volume exceeded $49.95 billion, while by July, $36.37 billion had been completed, compared to approximately $30 billion in May.

The World Cup has undoubtedly become a crucial entry point for driving growth in prediction markets, significantly accelerating the influx of capital and users.

Taking the two core players, Kalshi and Polymarket, as examples, Dune data shows that Kalshi's sports sector accounted for as much as 80.7% of nominal trading volume weekly; Polymarket's sports-related trades also reached 46.3%. Notably, the trading amount for prediction contracts surrounding "World Cup Champion" on Kalshi alone has exceeded $1.2 billion, setting a record for the platform's single prediction market.

To some extent, the global influence of the World Cup has allowed prediction markets to make their first large-scale contact with mainstream sports consumers, pushing them from the crypto and financial circles into the broader market.

Capturing 27% Share from Traditional Sports Betting

The rise of prediction markets has also altered the competitive landscape of the sports betting industry.

For decades, sports betting has been dominated by traditional bookmakers. However, with prediction markets gaining significant exposure during a global event like the World Cup, their user growth and trading scale have begun to attract industry attention. American sports betting platforms, including DraftKings and FanDuel, have started exploring prediction market-related businesses.

At the same time, traditional betting industries are facing new growth pressures. According to a report from mobile app data analytics company Apptopia, traditional sports betting platforms like DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars saw their daily active users peak on the fourth day after the World Cup began, followed by a decline. By the end of June, daily active users for DraftKings and FanDuel had dropped by 36% and 41% from their peaks, respectively.

In contrast, prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket have maintained a growth trend. As of June 30, Kalshi's daily active users grew by 36% compared to June 15, while Polymarket grew by 12%. During June, the two platforms contributed nearly half of the new active users across six major betting applications, with Kalshi accounting for 38%.

Download figures also show a clear difference. Apptopia noted that in June, Kalshi and Polymarket together accounted for 78.5% of the total installations of six sports betting platforms, indicating that new users are increasingly choosing prediction markets as their first betting entry point. Notably, the proportion of users simultaneously using DraftKings and Kalshi during the World Cup increased, but the flow of users from Kalshi to traditional sports betting platforms did not grow correspondingly. This suggests that traditional betting users are trying out prediction markets, while prediction market users have not yet significantly shifted to traditional betting.

Changes in market share also confirm this trend. According to estimates from research firm H2 Gambling Capital based on publicly available data from the first month of the World Cup, the trading volume of prediction markets has accounted for about 27% of the total trading volume of legal sports betting in the U.S., a significant increase from about 9% at the beginning of the year.

It is important to note that due to different trading statistical standards between prediction markets and traditional sports betting, and the fact that bookmakers have not released the latest internal data during the World Cup, a complete quantitative comparison between the two cannot be made.

However, it is undeniable that the World Cup is becoming a key turning point for the development of prediction markets. It not only helps prediction platforms achieve large-scale user education but is also pushing the sports betting industry into a new competitive stage. Nevertheless, whether the traffic dividends brought by the World Cup can be converted into long-term user assets remains a core challenge facing prediction markets.

Kalshi Expands Market Share, Polymarket Faces Internal and External Challenges

Behind the competition for traffic during the World Cup, the landscape of prediction markets is quietly changing.

Taking July data as an example, from the monthly trading volume perspective, The Block data shows that Kalshi and Polymarket (including Polymarket US) had a combined trading volume of approximately $257.6 billion in June, an increase of about 25.4% from May's $205.4 billion. Among them, Kalshi exceeded $147.05 billion, while Polymarket and Polymarket US had a cumulative trading volume of $110.55 billion, with the former's trading scale exceeding the latter by 1.3 times. Compared to the same period in 2025, Polymarket had previously been more advantageous, with its monthly trading volume being 4.6 times that of Kalshi.

At the same time, in terms of market share, Kalshi currently occupies about 73.2% of the prediction market trading share, while Polymarket and its U.S. business combined account for about 26.8%. In contrast, Polymarket's market share reached 36.7% in July last year, indicating a significant squeeze on its market share over the past year.

In terms of user growth, the gap between the two platforms is also widening. According to Kalshi's disclosure to CNBC, during the entire World Cup period, it added 3 million new users. In contrast, according to Dune data tracking, although Polymarket's cumulative number of unique users has exceeded 3.09 million, it only added about 274,000 new users in June and July.

On the capital market side, the valuation gap between the two is also widening. In June, the Financial Times reported that Kalshi is seeking a new round of financing, with a company valuation potentially rising to $40 billion, possibly completing the financing as early as the third quarter of this year. In contrast, Polymarket's current valuation is about $15 billion.

This series of data indicates that the competitive landscape of prediction markets is reversing. With regulatory advantages, institutional partnerships, and mainstream market channel layouts, Kalshi is gradually establishing a leading position; while Polymarket, despite its rapid rise based on a crypto-native model and global user base, is facing multiple challenges in regulation, business models, and user trust as the industry enters a phase of scaled competition.

For the first time, regulatory pressure is becoming a thick wall hindering Polymarket's global expansion. Recently, markets in France, the Czech Republic, and South Korea have scrutinized Polymarket, with some regions even implementing blocking measures. In the U.S. market, Polymarket recently applied for a U.S. futures license, hoping to expand its U.S. business through a compliant path, but uncertainties remain.

Secondly, brand trust issues have also become a new challenge. According to a recent report by The Wall Street Journal, Polymarket has been accused of hiring paid content creators to record trading videos on fake websites and spreading misleading "profit cases" through social media, with some videos showcasing high returns being questioned as not genuine profit results.

Recently, Polymarket raised its sports market transaction fee rate from 3% to 5%, while reducing the market maker rebate ratio from 25% to 15%. As this adjustment was not formally announced in advance but was directly updated on the fee page and related documents, it sparked dissatisfaction among some users, especially sports traders and high-frequency players.

A larger controversy arises from the POLY token. For a long time, some community users have anticipated Polymarket to launch a platform token, viewing the airdrop as an important reward for early participants. Previously, Polymarket had revealed that it would launch tokens and conduct airdrops after restarting its U.S. business, and its parent company Blockratize Inc. also submitted trademark registration applications for "POLY" and "$POLY", further strengthening market expectations.

However, recent former Polymarket team members indicated that the official token will not be launched in the short term and may still require a long wait. This news has further raised community doubts. Some users believe that Polymarket attracted early users and increased trading activity through token expectations, but the delay in realization has also weakened community trust.

From a capital path perspective, the community believes that Polymarket's development direction may gradually align with traditional financial models. Since 2025, Polymarket has completed multiple rounds of large-scale equity financing, including a strategic investment of $2 billion from ICE. Compared to relying on community incentives and token economics, Polymarket may be more inclined towards an IPO to realize value redemption in the future.

However, from a longer-term perspective, the competition in prediction markets is far from over. As more platforms like Robinhood, Charles Schwab, and Hyperliquid enter this space, future prediction markets will face comprehensive competition in user entry, regulatory capabilities, financial infrastructure, and ecosystem development.

The World Cup has already crowned its champion, but a new round of competition in prediction markets has just begun.

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